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Title: A 'Peak Oil' Prediction Surprise From the International Energy Agency

Link: https://hardware.slashdot.org/story/25/11/15/...

"The International Energy Agency's latest outlook signals that oil demand
could keep growing through to the middle of the century," reports CNBC,
"reflecting a sharp tonal shift from the world's energy watchdog and raising
further questions about the future of fossil fuels." In its flagship World
Energy Outlook, the Paris-based agency on Wednesday laid out a scenario in
which demand for oil climbs to 113 million barrels per day by 2050, up 13%
from 2024 levels. The IEA had previously estimated a peak in global fossil
fuel demand before the end of this decade and said that, in order to reach
net-zero emissions by 2050, there should be no new investments in coal, oil
and gas projects... The IEA's end-of-decade peak oil forecast kick-started a
long-running war of words with OPEC, an influential group of oil exporting
countries, which accused the IEA of fearmongering and risking the
destabilization of the global economy. The IEA's latest forecast of
increasing oil demand was outlined in its "Current Policies Scenario" - one
of a number of scenarios outlined by the IEA. This one assumes no new
policies or regulations beyond those already in place. The CPS was dropped
five years ago amid energy market turmoil during the coronavirus pandemic,
and its reintroduction follows pressure from the Trump administration...
Gregory Brew, an analyst at Eurasia Group's Energy, Climate and Resources
team, said the IEA's retreat on peak oil demand signified "a major shift"
from the group's position over the last five years. "The justifications
offered for the shift include policy changes in the U.S., where slow EV
penetration indicates robust oil [consumption], but is also tied to expected
increases in petrochemical and aviation fuel in East and Southeast Asia,"
Brew told CNBC by email. "It's unlikely the agency is adjusting based on
political pressure - though there has been some of that, with the Trump
administration criticizing the group's supposed bias in favor of renewable
energy - and the shift reflects a broader skepticism that oil demand is set
to peak any time soon," he added... Alongside its CPS, the IEA also laid out
projections under its so-called "Stated Policies Scenario" (STEPS), which
reflects the prevailing direction of travel for the global energy system. In
this assumption, the IEA said it expects oil demand to peak at 102 million
barrels per day around 2030, before gradually declining. Global electric car
sales are much stronger under this scenario compared to the CPS. The IEA said
its multiple scenarios explore a range of consequences from various policy
choices and should not be considered forecasts. Thanks to Slashdot reader
magzteel for sharing the news.

Read more of this story at Slashdot.

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