(A village in China is missing its idiot.  A bit of a read but worth
reading.)

From: https://tinyurl.com/3xcy83tu (thegatewaypundit.com)

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                  Xi Jinping: The Man Who Stopped China's Rise

   by Antonio Graceffo Aug. 7, 2025 10:30 am

   As China approaches the end of summer 2025, mounting economic data
   suggests that Xi Jinping's leadership may represent a decisive break in
   the country's four-decade-long economic rise. What once seemed like an
   unstoppable trajectory toward global dominance now shows signs of
   stagnation and structural weakness across multiple sectors.

   Xi Jinping has achieved unprecedented control over China, becoming the
   most powerful leader in the country's 75-year history, surpassing even Mao
   Zedong. After removing presidential term limits in 2018 and stacking the
   Politburo Standing Committee with loyalists at the 2022 Party Congress, Xi
   consolidated control over both the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) and the
   state. The forced removal of his predecessor Hu Jintao from the Party
   Congress in front of more than 2,200 party delegates demonstrated Xi's
   complete dominance.

   Yet this concentration of power has created what analysts call the
   "dictator's paradox," absolute control that has made China more vulnerable
   rather than stronger. Xi's centralization has significantly weakened the
   government's ability to adapt economic policy by eliminating expert
   dissent and public discourse, sharply curtailing considerations of
   alternative policies.

   The Central Commission for Deepening Reform, China's primary economic
   planning body, met 38 times during Xi Jinping's first five years in power
   but has convened only six times since 2022, with no meetings publicly
   announced since August 2024. This decline reflects a broader trend under
   Xi's leadership, in which economists have been punished for reporting
   negative data and officials have faced corruption investigations after
   criticizing his policies.

   This institutional decline has shaped Xi Jinping's overall economic
   strategy. His official doctrine, Xi Jinping's Economic Thought, formally
   titled Xi Jinping Thought on Socialist Economy with Chinese
   Characteristics for a New Era, has become mandatory reading. Rather than
   serving as a practical guide to economic management, the text functions
   primarily as ideological propaganda, promoting the same flawed theories
   that have led China from a period of rapid growth to its current slowdown
   and stagnation.

   Under Xi's leadership, the Chinese Communist Party has prioritized
   political control over economic efficiency, reversing many of the
   market-oriented reforms that once fueled the country's rise. His economic
   philosophy emphasizes national security and self-sufficiency over
   profitability, directing growth toward sectors like semiconductors,
   electric vehicles, drones, and batteries-even when these efforts sacrifice
   economic value. The state has taken a stronger role in managing private
   enterprises, using subsidies to expand manufacturing and exports rather
   than encouraging domestic consumption.

   These policy choices have created significant imbalances. In 2023,
   investment made up 41.1 percent of nominal GDP compared to a global
   average of 24 percent, while consumption accounted for just 56 percent,
   far below the global average of 76 percent.

   Xi's economic performance has been notably weaker than that of his
   predecessors. During Hu Jintao's tenure, China's GDP growth averaged
   10.6%, but under Xi, it has fallen to around 5%. However, many analysts
   suspect the official figures are inflated. The Rhodium Group estimates
   that real GDP growth in 2024 was likely between 2.4% and 2.8%, well below
   the government's reported rate.

   The economic challenges Xi faces are structural. Much of his third term
   has been defined by efforts to manage three critical problems: debt,
   deflation, and demography. China's total debt now exceeds 300% of GDP.

   Deflation has become a serious concern. Overall price levels declined for
   a second consecutive year in 2024-the longest deflationary stretch since
   the 1960s-and factory gate prices have continued to fall in 2025. Youth
   unemployment is also alarming, having reached 21.3% for 16-to-24-year-olds
   before Beijing stopped reporting the figure. Authorities later redefined
   unemployment to exclude recent graduates seeking their first job, which
   temporarily lowered the rate. Even under this revised definition, the
   youth jobless rate has climbed back to nearly 15%.

   Meanwhile, the severe decline of the real estate sector has further
   weakened growth. Once responsible for over 25% of GDP when including
   related industries, real estate was central to China's investment-driven
   model, now effectively dismantled.

   These domestic economic pressures have triggered an unprecedented exodus
   of capital and talent, signaling a sharp loss of confidence in China's
   economic future. In 2024, net foreign direct investment fell by $168
   billion, the steepest decline since 1990, while the capital account
   recorded a historic $496.2 billion deficit. The renewed trade war under
   President Trump has further accelerated the trend, with FDI declining an
   additional 15% in 2025.

   There has been a surge in departures of high-net-worth individuals. Henley
   & Partners estimated that 15,200 Chinese millionaires relocated in 2024,
   up 28 percent from 2023, the highest total globally. The country's
   billionaire class has shrunk significantly, falling from 1,185 in 2021 to
   753 in 2024, with the 2024 Hurun Global Rich List reporting a net loss of
   155 Chinese billionaires in the past year alone.

   The scale of capital flight has overwhelmed official channels. China's
   $50,000 annual transfer limit per individual has fueled widespread evasion
   through illicit methods. Authorities have dismantled over 100 underground
   money-handling operations and traced nearly $1 trillion in illegal
   transactions.

   The convergence of these economic and political factors suggests a
   fundamental shift in China's trajectory. The combination of deflation,
   debt, demographics, capital flight, and political constraints indicates
   China may have passed the peak of its economic rise. Nothing matters more
   to the party than political control. Investors and even Chinese citizens
   are not Xi's constituents; his sole constituent is the Communist Party,
   which prioritizes preserving power over overseeing a thriving economy.

   Xi's path to absolute power may have inadvertently created conditions for
   China's strategic decline, potentially making him the leader who stopped
   rather than advanced China's rise to global dominance. Whether intended or
   not, Xi's policies appear to have fundamentally altered China's growth
   trajectory in ways that may define both his legacy and China's future role
   in the world. Some experts worry that if China's ascent is faltering, Xi
   may resort to chaos abroad, such as triggering a war over Taiwan or in the
   South China Sea.
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-- Sean
 
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 * Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)