315 
AXNT20 KNHC 131032
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Thu Feb 13 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1000 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between a high 
pressure ridge across the western Atlantic along 29N and low 
pressure over northwestern Colombia will continue to support 
strong trade winds across the central Caribbean, pulsing to gale
force early this morning again again tonight near the coast of NW
Colombia. Rough to very rough seas are expected near and to the 
west of the highest winds. 

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A cold front extends from SE
Louisiana to just south of the Texas-Mexico border. This cold
front will stall Fri morning from near Tampa Bay to near Veracruz,
Mexico. Strong winds will follow the front, with winds reaching
gale force this evening offshore Tampico, Mexico and continuing
overnight. Seas of 12 to 14 ft can be expected with the gales.
Conditions will improve Fri as the stalled front weakens and
eventually lifts north as a warm front.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... 

The monsoon trough enters the eastern Atlantic through the coast
of Guinea-Bissau near 12N16W and continues southwestward to 
00N29W. The ITCZ extends from 00N29W to the coast of Brazil near 
00N50W. Scattered moderate convection is present within 90 nm of 
both sides of the monsoon trough and ITCZ.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A Gale Warning is in effect for portions of the western Gulf of 
Mexico. Please see the Special Feature Section above for information.

A cold front extends from SE Louisiana to just south of the
U.S-Mexico border. Fresh to strong NE winds follow the cold front,
along with seas building to 5 to 7 ft. Fresh southerly flow is
present for the remainder of the basin ahead of the front, with 4
to 7 ft seas. A band of pre-frontal moderate convection has
developed from just offshore the mouth of the Mississippi River to
near Pensacola, Florida. Otherwise, no convection is occurring in the basin.

For the forecast, the aforementioned cold front will stall Fri, 
then lift northward and out of the area Fri night into Sat. 
Another cold front will move offshore Texas Sat night, bringing 
another round of strong northerly winds. Gales are possible 
offshore Veracruz, Mexico, Sun afternoon and night behind this front.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A Gale Warning remains in effect off the coast of Colombia. Please 
read the Special Feature Section for details. 

The basin remains under the influence of an expansive 1030 mb 
high pressure system centered over the north-central Atlantic. The
pressure gradient between this ridge and the Colombian low forces
fresh to strong winds over much of the rest of the Caribbean. 
Seas in these waters are 6 to 10 ft.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between a high pressure 
ridge across the western Atlantic along 29N and low pressure over 
northwestern Colombia will support strong trade winds across the 
central Caribbean pulsing to gale force each night and early 
morning near the coast of NW Colombia through early Fri morning. 
Rough to very rough seas are expected near and to the west of the 
highest winds. Fresh E to NE trade winds and rough seas are 
expected across the remainder of southwestern and central 
Caribbean into the weekend, with winds pulsing to strong speeds 
through the Atlantic Passages, in the Gulf of Venezuela, and S of 
Hispaniola. Atlantic high pressure will move to near 55W tonight 
through early Fri, briefly shifting the zone of strong trade winds
and rough seas across the eastern Caribbean and Tropical North 
Atlantic waters. Looking ahead, Atlantic high pressure will begin 
to shift eastward Sun night through early Tue, leading to 
decreasing winds and seas across the basin. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A weak cold front extends into the tropical Atlantic near 31N30W
to 28N45W. Moderate northerly winds and moderate to rough seas 
are evident behind the frontal boundary. The rest of the basin 
is dominated by a broad subtropical ridge located in the north- 
central Atlantic. The pressure gradient between this ridge and 
lower pressures in the deep tropics result in fresh to strong 
easterly trade winds south of 23N. These winds are supporting 
moderate to rough seas. The strongest winds and highest seas are 
found south of 22N and west of 35W. Fresh southerly winds and 
moderate seas are noted off NE Florida. Elsewhere, moderate or 
weaker winds and moderate prevail.

For the forecast W of 55W, fresh to locally strong trade winds 
will prevail south of 25N through the weekend as the Atlantic 
ridge persists along 29N-30N. Associated easterly swell will also 
lead to rough seas S of 22N through the weekend. Gentle to 
moderate winds will prevail N of 25N through tonight, except for 
just offshore NE Florida, where some SW fresh to locally strong SW
flow has developed. On Fri, a cold front will move into NW 
waters, S of 30N and W of 65W, bringing fresh to strong NE winds 
and rough seas behind it. The cold front will still east across 
northern waters through the weekend. Another cold front will exit 
the SE U.S. late Sun and stretch from Bermuda to the Florida 
Straits by late Mon.

$$
Konarik
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