ACUS02 KWNS 210630
SWODY2
SPC AC 210628

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1228 AM CST Fri Feb 21 2025

Valid 221200Z - 231200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered thunderstorms are possible from the middle and upper Texas
Coast toward the Sabine Valley Saturday evening into early Sunday.
At least some risk of hail may eventually develop.

...Synopsis...
Northwest flow with multiple mid-level shortwave troughs will be
present across the CONUS on Saturday. One of these troughs will
advance from the Southwest into the southern Plains. Low-level flow
will strengthen across the western Gulf with increasing moisture and
strengthening isentropic ascent.

...Southeast Texas and southern Louisiana...
An increase in convection is expected along the Gulf Coast during
the day Saturday and particularly into Saturday night. MUCAPE around
500 J/kg and effective shear around 30-35 knots may result in a few
stronger storms. CAPE heavily concentrated within the hail growth
zone and a cool boundary layer will support the potential for some
hail, but somewhat limited instability may limit the updraft
acceleration needed for larger (1.00" hail. If greater instability
appears more likely, a Marginal Risk may eventually be needed from
southeast Texas and into coastal Louisiana.

..Bentley.. 02/21/2025

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