502 
AXNT20 KNHC 210836
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Fri Feb 21 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0830 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Atlantic Ocean Significant Swell Event: 
Large NW swell of 12 to 14 ft covers the eastern subtropical
Atlantic waters north of 20N between 20W and 43W. This swell will
shift S and E to cover the waters north of 16N between 15W and
40W today before gradually subsiding by Sat morning.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... 

The monsoon trough extends from 10N14W to 00N25W. The ITCZ 
extends from 00N25W to 02S44W. Scattered moderate convection is 
ongoing from 05S to 05N between 15W and the coast of western Brazil.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A tight pressure gradient prevails over the SW Gulf supporting
strong to near gale force winds, and seas of 8-12 ft. Fresh to
strong winds, and seas of 8-11 ft, prevail elsewhere S of 24N.
Moderate to fresh winds, and seas of 6-7 ft, prevail N of 24N. 

For the forecast, near gale force winds off Veracruz will 
diminish to fresh speeds through Sat. A trough will develop over 
the west- central and SW Gulf on Fri and linger through Sat night 
while weakening. Low pressure will develop along the trough on Sat
near South Texas, then track NE through Sun night before 
weakening through Sun night. The low will drag a frontal boundary
southeastward to just southeast of the basin by late Tue. Moderate
to fresh winds are expected behind the boundary as weak high 
pressure builds over the NW Gulf. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A frontal boundary is over the NW waters. Fresh winds, and seas of
6-7 ft prevail W of the front. Strong to near gale winds are off
the coast of Colombia, with seas of 8-9 ft. Strong winds are in
the gulf of Venezuela. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh winds, and
seas of 5-8 ft, are E of 80W. Elsewhere W of 80W, gentle to 
moderate winds, and seas of 2-4 ft, prevail. 

For the forecast, moderate to fresh trade winds and moderate seas
will prevail over most of the central and eastern Caribbean 
through Mon night, except for strong to near gale-force winds and 
rough seas offshore of Colombia and within and near the Gulf of 
Venezuela. A stationary front over the NW Caribbean will gradually
dissipate by this weekend. Strong high pressure building in the 
wake of the front will bring fresh to strong NE winds in the Lee 
of Cuba and the Windward Passage this evening through early Sun. 
Otherwise, rough seas in east swell will continue east of the 
Lesser Antilles through Sat, subsiding afterward. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please refer to the Special Features section for information on
the Significant Swell.

A cold front extends from near 31N65W southwestward to central 
Cuba. Fresh to strong winds, and seas of 8-10 ft, are on either 
side of the front N of 28N. Moderate to fresh winds are elsewhere 
W of the front. Farther east, two areas of high pressure are 
noted, a 1025 mb high centered near 29N45W and a 1024 mb high 
centered near 28N29W. Light winds are in the vicinity of the high 
center. Moderate to fresh winds prevail elsewhere. Aside from the 
area discussed in the special features section above, seas of 8 ft
or greater cover the waters E of 60W. Elsewhere W of 60W, seas are
in the 5-8 ft range. 

For the forecast west of 55W, the front will weaken as it reaches
from near 26N55W to 24N60W, continuing as a stationary front to 
Haiti Sat night and dissipating soon afterward. Its remnant trough
will drift back west toward the southeastern Bahamas through Mon 
while dissipating. Strong high pressure in the wake of the front 
will lead to fresh to strong northeast winds south of 25N, 
including the Straits of Florida and the Great Bahama Bank Fri 
night into Sat night. Conditions begin to improve beginning Sun 
morning and into early next week as a weak cold front moves across
the western part of the area. 

$$
AL
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