MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN

ACUS11 KWNS 181940
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 181939
OKZ000-TXZ000-182145-

Mesoscale Discussion 1350
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0239 PM CDT Wed Jun 18 2025

Areas affected...Portions of southern Oklahoma into the eastern
South Plains of Texas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 181939Z - 182145Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Large hail (isolated hail greater than 2 inches) and
severe wind gusts will be possible with storms developing on an
outflow boundary. The tornado threat is low, but nonzero,
conditional upon favorable storm interactions with the boundary. A
watch is possible for parts of Northwest Texas into southern
Oklahoma.

DISCUSSION...Surface observations and visible satellite over the
past several hours have indicated that an outflow boundary from
morning convection has slowly shifted north into southern Oklahoma
this afternoon. A weak surface low is also evident in far southwest
Oklahoma, very near the Red River. Given the amount of
destabilization that has occurred and the stronger convergence near
the surface low, it seems likely that a few storms will eventually
develop later this afternoon. With the upper-level trough moving
eastward, only modestly enhanced mid-level winds will remain. As
such, effective shear (30-35 kts) will only be marginally supportive
of supercells. However, steep mid-level lapse rates (7.8 C/km on the
18Z observed OUN sounding) and large buoyancy (3000+ J/kg MLCAPE)
will support a threat for large/very-large hail and severe wind
gusts. Coverage of hail greater than 2 inches may only be isolated
given weak anvil-level flow. The tornado threat appears low on
account of weak low-level winds, but a storm interacting with the
outflow boundary would be capable of tornado in that mesoscale
environment.

..Wendt.. 06/18/2025

ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN...LUB...

LAT...LON   34059559 33819742 33799838 33719948 33680006 33700013
            34030058 34530019 35099916 35329773 35369657 35349615
            35249583 35099574 34939567 34389557 34169561 34059559

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


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