538 
AXNT20 KNHC 220815
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Sat Feb 22 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0815 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Gale Warning: High pressure N of the area combined with
the Colombian low will support pulsing winds to gale force off 
the coast of Colombia tonight. Seas will build to 11 or 12 ft 
with these winds. Strong winds and rough seas are expected during
the daytime hours.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... 

The monsoon trough extends from 08N13W to 02N25W. The ITCZ continues
from 02N25W to 00N50W. Scattered moderate to locally strong
convection is noted within 360 nm S of the ITCZ/monsoon trough
between 10W and 30W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1022 mb low pressure area is centered over the NW Gulf, with 
associated cold front extending to near Tampico, Mexico. Fresh to
strong winds are west of the front as well as NE of the low. Strong
to near gale force winds, and seas of 8-11 ft, are off the coast 
of Veracruz, Mexico. Elsewhere W of 90W, seas are in the 7-10 ft 
range. Moderate to fresh winds, and seas of 4-7 ft, prevail E of 
90W.

For the forecast, the low will track NE through early Sun night, 
then quickly E to SE toward southern Florida on Mon with the cold 
front trailing from the low as it moves across the basin. Fresh to
strong winds are expected around the low pressure while moderate 
to fresh winds are expected behind the boundary. Weak high 
pressure will settle over the central Gulf Tue through Wed night 
in its wake with tranquil marine conditions across the basin. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A Gale Warning is in effect off the coast of Colombia. Please, 
refer to the Special Features section above for more details.

A dissipating frontal boundary is over the NW Caribbean. Moderate
to fresh winds, and seas of 5-7 ft, are W of the front. Fresh to
strong winds are in the lee of Cuba. Aside from the gale force
winds off Colombia, fresh to strong winds are over the south
central Caribbean, with moderate to fresh winds over the north
central Caribbean. Gentle to moderate winds prevail over the
eastern Caribbean. Seas of 8-10 ft are in the south central
Caribbean, with 4-6 ft seas elsewhere. 

For the forecast, moderate to fresh trade winds and moderate seas
will prevail over most of the central and eastern Caribbean 
through Mon night, except for strong to near gale-force winds and 
rough seas offshore of Colombia and within and near the Gulf of 
Venezuela. Winds off Colombia will pulse to gale-force tonight. A 
stationary front over the NW Caribbean will dissipate today. 
Strong high pressure building in the wake of the front will bring 
fresh to strong NE winds in the Lee of Cuba and the Windward 
Passage through early Sun. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from near 31N51W southwestward to the 
southern Bahamas, then becomes stationary to central Cuba. Fresh
to strong winds, and seas of 8-11 ft are N of 29N E of the front
to 45W. Fresh to strong winds are S of 23N W of the front with
gentle to moderate winds elsewhere W of the front. Seas of 8-14 ft
are W of the front to 75W, and 4-7 ft W of 75W. A surface ridge
extends from 31N28W SW to near 24N59W, with light to gentle winds
along the ridge axis. Fresh to strong winds are west of the coast
of Africa to just W of the Cabo Verde Islands. Moderate winds
prevail elsewhere. Seas of 8-12 ft prevail over much of the waters
E of 50W, and 5-8 ft elsewhere. 

For the forecast west of 55W, the front will weaken as it reaches
from near 26N55W to 24N60W tonight before dissipating. Strong 
high pressure in the wake of the front will lead to fresh to 
strong northeast winds south of 25N and west of the front, 
including the Straits of Florida through tonight. Conditions will 
improve Sun into early Mon. Broad low pressure from the Gulf will 
quickly approach South Florida Mon, and track NE to north 31N by 
late Tue night with a trailing cold front across the western part 
of the area. By late Wed night, fresh to strong winds will be 
confined to the NE part of the area.

$$
AL
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