642 
AXNT20 KNHC 230828
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Sun Feb 23 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0830 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Gale Warning: High pressure N of the area combined with
the Colombian low will support gale force winds off the coast of 
Colombia through the early morning hours today before diminishing.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... 

The monsoon trough extends from 07N12W to 01N23W. The ITCZ 
continues from 01N23W to 00N50W. Scattered moderate convection is
noted from 06S to 02N between 10W and 34W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1019 mb low pressure area is centered offshore southern Texas 
near 26N95W. A stationary front extends from the low to the Bay 
of Campeche, with a warm front from the low to 28N89W. Scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms are N of the warm front.
Moderate to fresh winds are near the low center. Gentle to
moderate winds prevail elsewhere, except for fresh winds over the
SW Gulf. Seas are in the 7-8 ft range W of the low, and 4-7 ft
elsewhere except the NE Gulf where seas of 2-4 ft prevail. 

For the forecast, the low will track NE through early tonight, 
then quickly E to SE toward southern Florida on Mon with the cold 
front trailing from the low as it moves across the basin. Fresh to
strong winds are expected around the low pressure while moderate 
to fresh winds are expected behind the boundary. Weak high 
pressure will settle over the central waters Tue through Wed night
in its wake with tranquil marine conditions across the basin. 
Another cold front may sweep across the basin Thu and Thu night. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A Gale Warning is in effect off the coast of Colombia. Please, 
refer to the Special Features section above for more details.

Outside of the gale warning area, fresh to strong NE winds are in
the lee of Cuba, with fresh winds in the Windward Passage as well
as over the south-central Caribbean. Moderate to locally fresh 
trade winds and moderate seas prevail elsewhere. Seas of 8-10 ft
are in the south central Caribbean, and 4-6 ft elsewhere. 

For the forecast, moderate to locally fresh winds in the western 
Caribbean will diminish early in the week as a cold front slips SE
of the Yucatan Channel. The front will reach from western Cuba to
the Gulf of Honduras late Mon night with fresh winds behind it. 
The front will stall and dissipate from eastern Cuba to eastern 
Honduras by early Wed. Fresh to near gale-force winds offshore 
northern Colombia will diminish gradually through Tue, then 
strengthen again toward the end of the week. Mainly moderate to 
locally fresh winds will prevail elsewhere in the central and 
eastern Caribbean through the middle of the week, and in the 
Tropical N Atlantic where moderate to locally rough seas will prevail.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from near 31N44W southwestward to 23N60W 
where it becomes stationary front across the Turks and Caicos 
Islands and eastern Cuba. Fresh winds are S of 23N and W of the 
front, with gentle to moderate winds elsewhere S of 24N and within
90 nm W of the front. Light to gentle winds are elsewhere W of the
front. Seas of 8-12 ft prevail W of the front to near 70W, with 
seas of 5-7 ft W of 70W. A ridge extends from a 1030 mb high near
36N13W SW to near 26N46W. Light to gentle winds are noted along
the ridge axis. Moderate to fresh winds prevail elsewhere. E of
the front, mainly 6-9 ft seas prevail, reaching 10 ft just west of
the cabo Verde Islands.  

For the forecast west of 55W, the front will dissipate today. 
Rough to very rough seas behind the front will subside across the 
waters W of 55W by late tonight. Broad low pressure from the Gulf 
of Mexico will approach South Florida Mon, and track NE to N 31N
by late Tue night dragging a trailing cold front across the 
western part of the area. Fresh to strong southerly winds will 
prevail ahead of the front and low Tue through Wed. By late Wed 
night, marine conditions may improve under a weak pressure 
pattern. Another front may move offshore the SE United States Thu night.

$$
AL
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