ACUS02 KWNS 280502
SWODY2
SPC AC 280500

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1100 PM CST Thu Feb 27 2025

Valid 011200Z - 021200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across much of the
U.S. Saturday through Saturday night.

...Discussion...
Models indicate that an amplified split flow, characterized by
generally high mid/upper heights, will be maintained across the
eastern Pacific into western North America through this period.
Within this regime, it appears that an initially slow moving
mid-level low near the southern California/northern Baja coast will
accelerate inland across the Southwest Saturday through Saturday
night, as a more prominent short wave trough digs toward the
northern and central California coast.  However, there remains
notable spread among the various model output concerning how rapidly
the lead perturbation transitions to an open wave, and how soon a
closed low develops within the trailing perturbation.

Downstream, large-scale mid/upper troughing likely will be
maintained across much of eastern North America, reinforced by a
number of digging short wave perturbations, as far south as the
northeastern Gulf Basin through Florida Peninsula.  This is forecast
to be accompanied by substantive further lower/mid-tropospheric
drying across much of the northern and eastern Gulf Basin.

In response to the evolving upstream pattern, a developing southerly
return flow may contribute to some lower/mid-tropospheric moistening
east of the Texas Big Bend toward deepening surface troughing to the
lee of the southern Rockies.  However, this is likely to be capped
by relatively warm and dry layers farther aloft.

Dry and/or stable conditions are expected to generally prevail
across much of the remainder of the U.S., as well, with little
appreciable risk for thunderstorm development.

...Southern Great Basin/Southwest...
There remains sizable spread among the various model output
concerning the track of the modest mid-level cold core of the inland
advancing lead short wave trough.  Given initially dry conditions,
and limited moisture return as it progresses inland, latest guidance
indicates only very weak destabilization beneath the coldest
mid-level temperatures.  Based on NAM/RAP forecast soundings, any
convection which may become capable of producing lightning probably
will need forcing augmented by the higher terrain.  While a brief
weak thunderstorm or two might not be out of the question across the
higher terrain of northwestern Arizona late Saturday afternoon, NCEP
SREF and HREF calibrated thunderstorm guidance currently suggest
that 10 percent thunderstorm probabilities might be to high.

..Kerr.. 02/28/2025

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