ACUS02 KWNS 010516
SWODY2
SPC AC 010515

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1115 PM CST Fri Feb 28 2025

Valid 021200Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHWESTERN
KANSAS...NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE....

...SUMMARY...
An isolated strong to severe thunderstorm or two may impact parts of
the central Great Plains late Sunday afternoon and early evening,
posing some risk for severe hail and wind.

...Discussion...
Downstream of an initially strong zonal jet across the mid-latitude
Pacific, the westerlies are forecast to remain split, with
relatively high mean mid-level heights across the eastern Pacific
into western North America.  The confluent eastern periphery of this
regime is forecast to gradually spread east of the Mississippi
Valley Sunday through Sunday night, in the wake of amplified,
seasonably cold, large-scale mid-level troughing slowly progressing
across and east of the Atlantic Seaboard.

Within the flow emanating from the Pacific, models continue to
indicate that one significant short wave perturbation will progress
inland of the Pacific coast into the Great Basin and Southwest.
This will be preceded by a more compact mid-level low, which is
forecast to weaken while crossing the southern Rockies through south
central Great Plains, within broader-scale flow trending more
anticyclonic.

As this occurs, in lower levels, models indicate that surface
troughing will deepen across the central and southern high plains,
in the wake of surface ridging shifting east of the Mississippi
Valley through the Atlantic Seaboard.  It appears that this will be
accompanied by strengthening southerly return flow, mainly inland of
a gradually modifying boundary layer across the western Gulf Basin.

...South Central Great Plains...
Despite limited moisture return within lower/mid-levels, beneath
relatively warm/dry layers farther aloft, models remain suggestive
that destabilization will become sufficient to potentially support
scattered thunderstorm development, aided by favorable large-scale
ascent.  It appears that this will be provided by the lead short
wave perturbation emerging from the Southwest, though notable
lingering spread among the various models concerning this feature
continues to make timing and location somewhat uncertain.  This may
include at least attempts at convection rooted within a weakly
unstable boundary-layer near the lee surface trough across the Texas
Panhandle, western Oklahoma, southwestern Kansas vicinity late
Sunday afternoon.  Aided by strong deep-layer wind fields and shear,
it might not be out the of the question that a cell or two could be
accompanied by hail and gusty surface winds, which could briefly
exceed severe limits late Sunday afternoon or early evening.

...Central California into Great Basin...
Beneath stronger mid-level cooling and forcing for ascent forecast
to overspread the region, destabilization, aided by daytime heating,
probably will become sufficient for widely scattered weak
thunderstorms Sunday afternoon and evening.

..Kerr.. 03/01/2025

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