FOUS30 KWBC 011535
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1035 AM EST Sat Mar 1 2025

Day 1
Valid 12Z Sat Mar 01 2025 - 12Z Sun Mar 02 2025

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Cook/Roth


Day 2
Valid 12Z Sun Mar 02 2025 - 12Z Mon Mar 03 2025

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Roth


Day 3
Valid 12Z Mon Mar 03 2025 - 12Z Tue Mar 04 2025

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

...Southeast Oklahoma...
A cold low progresses from the Great Basin into the High Plains of
CO by Tuesday morning. This leads to the formation of a CO cyclone
late Monday which advances eastward across southwest KS. Warm air 
advection ahead of the cyclone is expected to advect 500-1000 J/kg 
of MU CAPE and precipitable water values of 1.25"+ by Tuesday 
morning into southeast OK. Inflow at 850 hPa accelerates past 50 
kts. Since the airmass in the wake of its cold front is more dry 
than cold, instability lurks in its "cold sector" as well. NAM 
parameters suggest organized convection should occur either in the 
form/mode of supercells or a squall line -- assuming convection is
around for 4+ hours and can form a cold pool to force forward 
propagation -- somewhere near southeast OK. For the moment, only 
the 00z Canadian Regional model brings rainfall amounts over 1.5" 
(local spots of 3-4" near the Red River Valley of the South). The 
region has been dry over the past week, allowing much of the 
ArkLaTex and southeast OK (outside of the Ouachita mountains) to 
not be particularly sensitive to heavy rainfall should the 00z 
Canadian verify. While the risk of excessive rainfall is non- zero,
believe it still remains under the 5 percent threshold for the 
time being.

Roth

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