ACUS02 KWNS 011726
SWODY2
SPC AC 011725

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1125 AM CST Sat Mar 01 2025

Valid 021200Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE EASTERN
TEXAS PANHANDLE...WESTERN OKLAHOMA...PARTS OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe storms are possible from western North
Texas into northwest Oklahoma and adjacent southwest Kansas on
Sunday. Large hail and strong/marginally severe winds are the
primary hazards.

...Synopsis...
A compact upper low currently in the lower Colorado Valley will
eject into the southern High Plains by early afternoon on Sunday. A
modest surface low will develop in response to this feature and will
generally track through the Texas Panhandle into western/central
Oklahoma. Moisture return on the western flank of the surface high
to the east will be relatively weak. However, with 50s F dewpoints
in portions of Central Texas, it is possible that mid/upper 40s F
could return into the Texas Panhandle/western Oklahoma vicinity
during the afternoon.

...Eastern Texas Panhandle into western Oklahoma Vicinity...
With the approach of the compact shortwave trough, some elevated
showers and embedded thunderstorms are possible Sunday morning. This
activity will move northeastward and may persist into the early/mid
afternoon in some areas. The primary severe risk will be associated
with the surface low and whatever destabilization is able to occur
in the wake of the early activity. As mentioned, moisture will be
rather modest. Compensating for this, however, will be very cold
temperatures aloft (-20 to -22 C in the core of the upper
low/trough). At lest a narrow band of buoyancy is expected to
develop in the eastern Texas Panhandle and far western Oklahoma. A
strong mid-level jet on the southern/eastern flank of the upper
trough will promote at least marginal supercell structures capable
of large hail and strong/marginally severe winds. Storms are more
likely to be elevated farther north into Kansas and east into
central Oklahoma. Even so, small to marginally severe hail and
isolated strong gusts would be possible in the strongest storms.

..Wendt.. 03/01/2025

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