ACUS02 KWNS 020547
SWODY2
SPC AC 020545

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1145 PM CST Sat Mar 01 2025

Valid 031200Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE MONDAY
EVENING INTO EARLY TUESDAY ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL INTO EASTERN
OKLAHOMA..ADJACENT PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN KANSAS...AND WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
A rapidly developing line of thunderstorms probably will be
accompanied by a risk for severe hail, damaging wind gusts and
perhaps a tornado or two across parts of the southern Great Plains
by Monday night.

...Discussion...
In the wake of de-amplifying cold, mid/upper troughing shifting away
from the Atlantic Seaboard, much of North America will be under the
influence of split flow emanating from the Pacific through this
period.  This regime will remain characterized by relatively high
mean mid-level heights, but with a couple of significant embedded
short wave troughs.  As one of these progresses across the eastern
Pacific toward the Pacific coast, a more prominent downstream trough
appears likely to cross the southern Rockies into the central and
southern Great Plains by late Monday night.

The lead trough likely will be comprised of at least a couple of
notable smaller-scale perturbations, and the details concerning its
evolution and motion have been varied in the model output.  Spread
remains within the latest model runs, but there appears better
consensus concerning impacts on convective potential.

Associated large-scale forcing for ascent is forecast to support
strong surface cyclogenesis within deepening lee surface troughing,
across parts of eastern Colorado into western Kansas late Monday
through Monday night.  This likely will be accompanied by
intensifying southerly low-level wind fields (including 40-50+ kt
around 850 mb) across much of the southern and central Great Plains
through lower Missouri Valley, and a gradual increase in moisture
off a still modifying boundary layer over the western Gulf Basin.

...Southern Great Plains...
By Monday evening, models indicate that low-level moistening may
include surface dew points increasing into/through the lower to mid
60s F in a plume across central Texas through much of central
Oklahoma and adjacent southern Kansas.  By around 04/06Z, if not
earlier, it now appears that destabilization beneath steepening
lower/mid-tropospheric lapse rates may yield a narrow corridor of
mixed-layer CAPE on the order of 500-1000 J/kg near the western edge
of the moist plume.  This probably will be aided by the leading edge
of mid-level forcing for ascent and cooling, and contribute to the
initiation of a narrow corridor of thunderstorm development across
western into central Oklahoma and northwest Texas.

In the presence of strengthening deep-layer wind fields and shear, a
couple of supercells are possible before convection consolidates
into an organizing line.  This may be fairly quick, but still
accompanied by the risk for severe hail, potentially damaging wind
gusts and perhaps potential for a tornado or two.  Stronger
thunderstorm development probably will tend to develop
south-southeastward into and across the I-35 corridor overnight,
associated with the more moist/unstable inflow.

..Kerr.. 03/02/2025

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