FOUS30 KWBC 020842
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
342 AM EST Sun Mar 2 2025

Day 1
Valid 12Z Sun Mar 02 2025 - 12Z Mon Mar 03 2025

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Churchill


Day 2
Valid 12Z Mon Mar 03 2025 - 12Z Tue Mar 04 2025

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Churchill


Day 3
Valid 12Z Tue Mar 04 2025 - 12Z Wed Mar 05 2025

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE UPPER MIDWEST AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO PORTIONS OF
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND TENNESSEE VALLEY...

A pattern change will bring widespread precipitation to much of the
Central and Southeast CONUS, as a cut-off low/upper-level trough
and associated surface cyclone progress across the middle portion
of the country. QPF maxima are expected across two general regions,
near the Mid-South (primarily in associated with precipitation from
the broad open warm sector and subsequent cold frontal passage) 
and much of IA into northern MO (mainly from the pivoting low 
pressure center as it occludes/matures). While flash flood impact 
coverage should remain somewhat limited in both areas (low-end 
Slight risk probabilities) with relatively dry antecedent 
conditions and a rather progressive storm system motion, the very 
dynamic nature of the system is likely to bring strong convection
with localized totals nearing 2" in a short period (though a
portion of the QPF over IA is likely to be in the form of snow on
the back-end of the low). Barring any major changes in the 
forecast strength and progression of the storm system, impacts are 
likely to be capped at the Slight threshold with better refinement 
of the areas impacted with the addition of CAM data over the next 
couple of days. 

Churchill


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