Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
400 PM EDT Sat Sep 26 2026

Valid 00Z Sun Sep 27 2026 - 00Z Tue Sep 29 2026

...Impacts from a significant Nor'easter will extend through the weekend
into Monday especially for the coastal sections of the northeastern U.S.
into the Mid-Atlantic...

...Moisture lifted ahead of a weak front could bring locally heavy rain
across Iowa tonight...

...Upper-level moisture drawn northeastward from the twin tropical
cyclones in the eastern Pacific could reach the Four Corners region by
Monday morning...

A strong low-pressure system continues to churn off the coast of the
northern Mid-Atlantic and southern New England this Saturday afternoon.
Additional energy associated with an upper-level vortex will dig
southeastward across the Mid-Atlantic states to merge with this strong
cyclone centered a few hundred miles southeast of New York City. This
dynamical merging will pull the cyclone center closer toward New Jersey
and Long Island through tonight, resulting in the full force of this
Nor'easter impacting coastal southern New England to the northern
Mid-Atlantic by Sunday morning.  North to northeasterly winds are forecast
to strengthen to gale or storm-force especially near the coast through
tonight, along with more frequent rounds of moderate to occasionally heavy
rain. In addition, major coastal flooding is expected along the
Mid-Atlantic Coast over multiple high tide cycles coming off a full moon
through the weekend. Prepare immediately for significant inundation in
low-lying areas near the shore, including roads underwater and impacts to
homes and businesses. Moreover, large breaking waves will continue to
generate strong rip currents, beach erosion, road closures, and property
damage for the Carolinas and Mid-Atlantic into Southern New England into
Monday. In addition, waves of heavy rain may lead to inland flooding from
northern New Jersey into southern New England for much of Sunday, where
WPC continues to highlight a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive
rainfall. From late Sunday into early Monday, the cyclone center is
forecast to stall near the New Jersey coast as the system begins to
steadily weaken. However, strong to gale-force onshore winds are still
expected along the New England coast from Cape Cod northward. Meanwhile,
moderate rain can be expected to linger across southern New England into
Monday. Please see the latest WPC Key Messages for this system at
wpc.ncep.noaa.gov.

Outside of the Nor'easter, weather conditions for the rest of the country
will be relatively less active through the remainder of the weekend. A
slug of moisture extending from Oklahoma to Minnesota will be lifted ahead
of a weak warm front. The rain could be enhanced by the passage of an
upper-level disturbance across Iowa this evening, where WPC is
highlighting a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall. By Sunday, a
high-pressure system building into the northern Plains will keep the
showers and thunderstorms more widely scattered along this corridor.
Sunday night into Monday morning should see new rounds of showers and
thunderstorms blossoming across the northern Plains as a low-pressure wave
forms over the northern High Plains behind the high-pressure system.
Meanwhile, tropical moisture transporting northeastward from the twin
tropical cyclones, Odalys and Polo, in the eastern Pacific is forecast to
reach the Four Corners region by Monday morning as rain expands across the
region with embedded thunderstorms ahead of an upper-level trough moving
onshore into California.


Kong


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx...

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