254 
FXUS64 KMRX 261745
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
145 PM EDT Sat Sep 26 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 136 PM EDT Sat Sep 26 2026

- Fall-like temperatures continue through Monday, but a notable 
  warm up is expected Tuesday onward, with temperatures rising 
  several degrees above normal.

- Dry weather is expected through much of the coming week. Rain 
  chances may return by Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 136 PM EDT Sat Sep 26 2026

There's really not much to talk about for much of the coming week. 
An upper ridge extends from Texas into the Great Lakes region this 
morning, with an upper low and associated Nor'easter off the 
northeast coastline this morning. This basic central CONUS ridge and 
eastern CONUS trough pattern, holds through early next week before 
the ridge shifts to the Appalachian chain and southeast CONUS 
Wednesday through the end of the week and an upper low settles over 
the plains. 

As far as sensible weather goes locally, pleasant fall temperatures 
continue through Monday, with a notable warming trend expected 
Tuesday onward as the ridge builds overhead. Highs extending several 
degrees above normal look likely by the latter half of the week. Dry 
conditions should prevail through much of the coming week. The 
plains upper low looks to open up and eject ENE sometime Thursday 
night into Friday, with associated broad SSW low level flow pulling 
moisture northward from the Gulf into the greater Tennessee valley 
and southern Appalachian region. Current NBM guidance brings rain 
chances back into the mix in earnest by Friday. While that's 
plausible, there's enough disagreement in guidance to not buy into 
rain chances that far out just yet, plus experience suggests these 
types of patterns break down slower than expected. All of that to 
say, maybe check the forecast in the coming days and don't bank of 
next weekend being a washout just yet.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 136 PM EDT Sat Sep 26 2026

VFR flight categories will prevail at all sites through the 18z
period, with one caveat. A persistence forecast, as well as some
numerical guidance as well, suggests that fog and low clouds will
once again be an issue at KTRI tonight. Just have a TEMPO group in
there to account for that given it was only a 3hr window where fog
and clouds affected the terminal. Otherwise, mostly clear skies
and light winds will be the norm.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             54  84  53  85 /   0   0   0   0 
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  49  77  50  78 /   0   0   0   0 
Oak Ridge, TN                       49  79  50  79 /   0   0   0   0 
Tri Cities Airport, TN              45  74  46  75 /   0   0   0   0 

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CD
AVIATION...CD


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