Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
422 AM EDT Sun Sep 27 2026

Valid 12Z Sun Sep 27 2026 - 12Z Tue Sep 29 2026

... A strong Nor'easter off the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast will bring
coastal flooding, rip currents, strong wind gusts, and heavy rain to the
region through Monday evening...

...There is a Moderate Risk (level 3/4) of excessive rainfall over parts
of the Southwest, Great Basin, and Central/Southern Rockies on Monday and
the Southwest, Southern Rockies, and Southern High Plains...

...There is a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of
Southern New England on Sunday and the Upper Midwest on Monday...

An upper-level low along the Mid-Atlantic Coast will move northeastward
into the Gulf of Maine by Tuesday.  The powerful Nor�easter is currently
drifting near the New Jersey coastline and continues to bring coastal
impacts and unsettled weather from the Mid-Atlantic to New England through
Monday. Conditions will gradually ease Sunday afternoon into early this
week.

Furthermore, widespread minor to moderate coastal flooding is expected for
at least one more high-tide cycle Sunday morning. This follows prior
significant coastal flooding impacts on Saturday, which affected numerous
locations along the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast coastlines. In addition,
strong rip currents, rough surf, and significant beach erosion will make
for dangerous beach conditions from the Carolinas and Mid-Atlantic into
southern New England through at least Sunday evening. Moreover, strong
wind gusts up to 40-50 mph remain possible Sunday morning from New Jersey
to Long Island, which may lead to additional power outages and tree
damage. Heavy rain may also lead to isolated inland flooding from Northern
New Jersey into Southern New England through Monday.

Also, the Nor�easter will produce significant coastal impacts along the
Northeastern Seaboard. The storm will produce heavy rain over parts of New
England. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of
excessive rainfall over parts of Southern New England on Sunday into
Monday morning. The associated heavy rain will create mainly localized
flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, small streams, and narrow
canyons/gullies the most vulnerable. The heavy rain associated with the
storm will slowly wane to a few showers over parts of Maine by Tuesday
morning.

Please see the latest WPC Key Messages for this system at
wpc.ncep.noaa.gov.

In the meantime, tropical moisture from the Pacific will stream into the
Southwest, producing widespread showers and thunderstorms with heavy rain.
Therefore, the WPC has issued a Moderate Risk (level 3/4) of excessive
rainfall over parts of the Southwest, Great Basin, and Central/Southern
Rockies for Monday. The Moderate Risk (level 3/4) of excessive rainfall
will expand into the Southern High Plains on Tuesday.

Also, a wave of low pressure over parts of the Northern Plains on Monday
will produce showers and thunderstorms with heavy rain over parts of the
Upper Midwest on Tuesday. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk
(level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of the Upper Midwest. The
associated heavy rain will create mainly localized flash flooding, with
urban areas, roads, small streams, and narrow canyons/gullies the most
vulnerable. Additionally, a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall
will extend into parts of the Central Plains and Middle Mississippi Valley
on Tuesday.


Ziegenfelder


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx...

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