ACUS02 KWNS 041732
SWODY2
SPC AC 041730

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1130 AM CST Tue Mar 04 2025

Valid 051200Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY
ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA...EASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA...AND SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms capable of producing scattered damaging-wind
gusts and a few tornadoes are possible Wednesday across parts of the
eastern Carolinas into southeast Virginia. Other strong to severe
storms may occur across parts of Florida and east Georgia, and also
from the Allegheny Plateau into the Mid Atlantic.

...Synopsis...
A strong and deep mid/upper-level shortwave trough will move across
the eastern CONUS Wednesday, as an intense occluding cyclone (with
central pressure in the 980-985 mb range) moves northeastward from
central IL toward the lower Great Lakes region and eventually into
southwestern Quebec.

While some moistening will occur within the warm sector of the
cyclone, guidance continues to indicate that destabilization may
only become supportive of weak CAPE on the order of 500 J/kg or
less.  However, given the intense wind fields and areas of stronger
ascent, at least a conditional risk for severe thunderstorms is
expected across a broad area.

...Southern Mid Atlantic into the Carolinas and GA/FL...
A remnant convective band and potential QLCS will likely be ongoing
Wednesday morning. Moistening and modest destabilization will
support some intensification as this band moves eastward through the
day across the Carolina Piedmont region toward the
Carolina/southeast VA coastal plain. Intense wind fields will
support a threat of at least scattered damaging winds with these
storms as they move eastward through the day. In addition, large and
clockwise-curved hodographs (with 0-1 km SRH near/above 300 m2/s2)
will support some tornado potential. A strong tornado will be
possible, especially if any embedded supercell structures can be sustained.

Other strong to potentially severe storms will be possible from
eastern GA into the FL Peninsula, primarily early in the day before
convection moves offshore.

...Allegheny Plateau into the northern Mid Atlantic...
Low-level moistening beneath increasingly prominent midlevel cooling
and drying will support modest destabilization from parts of the
Allegheny Plateau into the northern Mid Atlantic region. While
diurnal convection that develops within this regime may remain
relatively low-topped, effective shear will remain supportive of
organized storms, including potential for a couple supercells and/or
organized line segments. Damaging winds, isolated hail, and possibly
a tornado or two could accompany the strongest storms across this
region, especially during the afternoon and early evening.

..Dean.. 03/04/2025

$$
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