Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
400 PM EDT Sun Sep 27 2026

Valid 00Z Mon Sep 28 2026 - 00Z Wed Sep 30 2026

...A round of heavy rain and embedded thunderstorms associated with the
meandering Nor'easter is forecast to impact southern New England to the
northern Mid-Atlantic through tonight and into Monday...

...Flash flood threat emerges and expands quickly across the Four Corners
region as an upper trough interacts with tropical moisture from Polo and
Odalys...

The strong low-pressure system that has been impacting New England and the
northern Mid-Atlantic over the weekend made landfall over central and
southern New Jersey today as it gradually weakens. The center of this
Nor'easter is moving southward in a cyclonic loop, brushing the southern
coastline of New Jersey before gradually taking an east-northeast track
and passing south of Long Island through Sunday night. As the final piece
of an upper-level trough completely merges with the system, the Nor'easter
will enter its gradual weakening stage. However, a batch of heavy rain
with embedded thunderstorms forming on the eastside of the weakening
system south of Long Island is expected to rotate toward and across
southern New England and into much of New Jersey through tonight. The
low-pressure center will not exit quickly, and southern New England will
remain under the threat of moderate to heavy rain for much of Monday.
Strong and gusty onshore wind will buffet coastal New England from Cape
Cod northward, potentially reaching gale force Sunday night into early
Monday. Light to moderate rain will then overspread the remaining areas of
northern New England on Monday before the weakening Nor'easter finally
exits into Nova Scotia by Tuesday evening.

Outside of the Nor'easter, much less active weather is found across the
rest of the country to end this weekend. However, this tranquil weather
pattern will be short-lived as the threat of flash flooding emerges and
then quickly expands across the Four Corners region over the next couple
of days. This is in response to an upper-level trough moving onshore into
California ingesting tropical moisture coming from the twin tropical
cyclones Polo and Odalys currently over the eastern Pacific. Monday should
see the initial expansion of showers and thunderstorms across much of the
Four Corners states ahead of the upper trough. This will be followed by
the core of the tropical moisture from Polo moving through northern Mexico
on Tuesday, reaching New Mexico later that day. WPC is highlighting a
large area of slight and moderate risk of flash flooding engulfing much of
the Four Corners states Monday and Tuesday, with more focus toward New
Mexico on Tuesday. Much of the region can expect to receive 2 inches of
rainfall with much higher amounts likely due to localized terrain effects.
There is uncertainty regarding the track of Polo's remnants across
northern Mexico and how much of Polo's circulation remains by the time it
reaches the U.S. Please stay tuned to this emerging flash flooding event
across the Four Corners states over the next couple of days.


Kong


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx...

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