035 
FXUS64 KMRX 280523
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
117 AM EDT Mon Sep 28 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 108 AM EDT Mon Sep 28 2026

- Near normal temperatures and dry conditions continue today, but
  a notable warm up is expected Tuesday onward, with temperatures
  rising several degrees above normal.

- Low rain chances start to creep in by Friday but Saturday and
  Sunday have potential for higher rain chances. 

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 108 AM EDT Mon Sep 28 2026

In the upper levels, a ridge is over the Great Plains and 
Midwest. A closed low is centered near New Jersey. At the surface,
high pressure is over the Great Lakes extending southward to the 
Tennessee Valley. A Nor'easter is just off the coast of New Jersey
drifting northward slowly. Dry, sunny weather with pleasant 
temperatures will continue today with highs mainly in the upper 
70s and lower 80s. 

By Tuesday, the pattern starts to change with a ridge over the 
Tennessee and Ohio River Valleys. A closed low over the Southwest is 
drifting eastward very slowly. At the surface, weak high pressure 
will be centered near the Carolinas. The system out west weakens 
late in the week near Texas. A warming trend will become noticeable 
by Tuesday with highs in the 80s for the rest of the workweek 
(around 90 degrees near Chattanooga). Dry weather will continue 
until low rain chances return on Friday. 

By Friday, a ridge will be centered near FL/GA/SC as a trough dips 
into the Ohio Valley. The position of the ridge will supply deep 
layer moisture from the Gulf. Rain chances start to increase on 
Friday but higher chances are likely on Saturday as a slow moving 
cold front moves into the region. The wet pattern will likely 
continue into Sunday but it is still pretty far out and things may 
change with the pattern.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 108 AM EDT Mon Sep 28 2026

It will be a mostly persistence forecast, with a VFR forecast all
sites other than fog development at TRI late tonight that will
persist into the early morning. Light winds to start will become 
north and northeast generally less than 10 kts during the day, 
then light again after sunset.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             83  55  86  56 /   0   0   0   0 
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  79  52  83  55 /   0   0   0   0 
Oak Ridge, TN                       80  53  82  55 /   0   0   0   0 
Tri Cities Airport, TN              76  49  79  51 /   0   0   0   0 

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...McD
AVIATION...99


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