597 
FXUS64 KMRX 281803
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
203 PM EDT Mon Sep 28 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 125 PM EDT Mon Sep 28 2026

- A notable warm up begins tomorrow and continues through
  Thursday, with temperatures rising into the mid to upper 80s by
  Wed and Thu across low elevation areas.

- Low rain chances start to creep in by Friday but Saturday and
  Sunday have potential for higher rain chances. 

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 125 PM EDT Mon Sep 28 2026

The synoptic scale trough over the eastern CONUS, anchored by the
ongoing Nor'easter over New England coastline today, will begin 
shifting east today, allowing upper ridging to begin building in 
from our west tonight through late this week. Subsequently
temperatures will respond, warming significantly over the next
couple of days. Highs will climb into the low 80s in the north by
Wednesday, and into the upper 80s to perhaps low 90s for the
central and southern low elevation areas. It won't be record
territory, but quite warm nonetheless. Otherwise, dry conditions 
continue through Thursday before rain chances make a return 
sometime Friday into the weekend.

Speaking of the rain, there's rather good agreement amongst 
guidance on how the overall pattern evolves late this week into 
the weekend. An upper low will move ENE from the plains towards 
the Ohio valley late Thursday, opening up as it does so in 
response to a strong shortwave moving through the Canadian side of
the Great Lakes region. Surface high pressure then builds across 
the Midwest and Ohio valley areas, leading to a cold front being 
positioned somewhere across from the Ohio valley southwest into 
West Tennessee by Friday, pushing south of the region by Saturday.
Meanwhile upper high pressure will remain anchored off the 
Florida and southeast coastline, with broad southwesterly flow 
pumping Gulf moisture northward into the Tennessee valley and 
southern Appalachian region Friday into the weekend. The only 
uncertainty to speak of with how this pattern plays out, revolves
around when exactly the rain makes a return. Current NBM guidance
has PoPs in the forecast for Friday afternoon which is not 
unreasonable. But there still is a decent signal that suggests 
rain holds off until Saturday. For now, will continue to side with
NBM guidance until there is clarity in the timing. Regardless of
the onset, the pattern suggests the rainy conditions continue
through the weekend before another trough and associated cold
front dive southeast from Minnesota and kick the rain east of us
sometime Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 125 PM EDT Mon Sep 28 2026

VFR conditions will largely prevail at all terminals through the
18z TAF period. The one caveat would be KTRI where a persistence
forecast would support another round of fog and/or low clouds
again tonight. That should be short lived however. Otherwise, will
winds may occasionally get slightly over 10kt this afternoon, 
winds should be light through the period, especially tomorrow.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             55  87  57  90 /   0   0   0   0 
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  52  84  56  88 /   0   0   0   0 
Oak Ridge, TN                       55  83  56  86 /   0   0   0   0 
Tri Cities Airport, TN              52  80  53  83 /   0   0   0   0 

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CD
AVIATION...CD


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