423 
FXUS64 KMRX 290609
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
209 AM EDT Tue Sep 29 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 122 AM EDT Tue Sep 29 2026

- A notable warm up begins today and continues through Thursday, 
  with temperatures rising into the mid to upper 80s by Wed and 
  Thu across low elevation areas.

- Low rain chances start to creep in by Friday but Saturday and 
  Sunday have potential for heavy rain at times.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 122 AM EDT Tue Sep 29 2026
 
In the upper levels, a ridge will be over the Tennessee and Ohio
River Valleys. A trough remains over New England. A closed low 
over the Southwest is drifting eastward very slowly. At the 
surface, weak high pressure will be centered near the Carolinas. 
Ridging and high pressure through Thursday will bring dry, sunny 
weather along with a warming trend. Expect highs in the 80s for 
the rest of the workweek (around 90 degrees near Chattanooga). 

By Friday, a ridge will be centered near FL/GA/SC as a trough dips 
into the Ohio Valley. The position of the ridge and surface high to 
the southeast will supply deep layer moisture from the Gulf into the 
Tennessee Valley. Rain chances start to increase on Friday but 
higher chances are likely on Saturday as a slow moving cold front 
moves into the region. This boundary will likely linger over the 
region through Sunday before a shortwave finally pushes it through 
late Sunday. Confidence is increasing in heavy rain potential. Rain 
totals of 2 to 3 inches will be possible this weekend. Flooding 
potential will likely be low as dry as it has been but some minor 
issues cannot be ruled out. 

On Monday, rain chances will likely taper off as the system moves 
out and high pressure moves in from the north. Highs will be cooler 
in the 70s for Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 122 AM EDT Tue Sep 29 2026

Main concern will again be potential fog development at TRI, with
visibility likely to be impacted for a few hours late tonight 
into the early morning hours. Will keep the current MVFR/IFR 
conditions in the forecast there, but could see lower conditions. 
Otherwise, will have a VFR forecast for the period all sites. 
Winds will generally be light.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             86  57  90  62 /   0   0   0   0 
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  84  56  87  59 /   0   0   0   0 
Oak Ridge, TN                       83  55  85  59 /   0   0   0   0 
Tri Cities Airport, TN              79  54  83  56 /   0   0   0   0 

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...McD
AVIATION...99


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