Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
337 PM EDT Tue Sep 29 2026

Valid 00Z Wed Sep 30 2026 - 00Z Fri Oct 02 2026

...Considerable flash flooding remains possible tonight from southeast
Arizona and New Mexico into West Texas as the remnants of Polo merge with
a strong upper-level low...

...Heavy rain and flash flooding shift to the southern Rockies and
Southern Plains on Wednesday and Thursday, with a broad area of flood
concerns extending to the Great Lakes...

..Warm, dry weather builds across the East behind the departing
Nor'easter, with highs approaching 90 from the Mid-Atlantic to the Ohio
Valley by Thursday...

An upper-level low over the Desert Southwest is forecast to move into New
Mexico by Wednesday morning, drawing tropical moisture from the remnants
of Hurricane Polo northeastward. Slow-moving thunderstorms will continue
this evening across southeast Arizona and western New Mexico, with a line
of heavy storms expected overnight from southern and eastern New Mexico
into West Texas, including the Pecos River valley. Saturated soils, burn
scars, canyons, and low-water crossings are especially vulnerable, where
locally significant flash flood concerns exist. WPC has a Moderate Risk
(level 3 of 4) of excessive rainfall from the Southwest into the central
High Plains, including a targeted area along the Arizona and Utah border.
Storms near the remnant circulation could also produce damaging winds and
a brief tornado over southeast New Mexico and West Texas.

On Wednesday, a dry slot should move across eastern New Mexico and the
Panhandles, finally ending the heavy rain over those hard-hit areas.
Meanwhile, a strengthening low over the High Plains will pull deep Gulf
moisture northward. Moderate Risks are in place for upslope rain along the
southern Front range and for a slow-moving line of storms from central
Oklahoma into Texas. A Moderate Risk also extends across southeastern
Nebraska into western Iowa. SPC has a Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) risk of
severe thunderstorms over the Southern Plains, with damaging winds, hail,
and a few tornadoes possible. By Thursday, the trough should weaken and
stall over the Plains as a cold front settles south. The Moderate Risk
then shifts to southeast Oklahoma, the Texas Hill Country, and South
Texas, with a Slight Risk from Texas to the Great Lakes. Cooler, drier air
will follow the front, and frost is possible across the northern Plains
and Upper Midwest late in the week.

In the East, the nor'easter will move away from New England, ending the
rain. Minor coastal flooding remains possible at high tide along parts of
the Mid-Atlantic coast. High pressure will bring a warming trend, with
highs 10 to 15 degrees above average. Heat indices near 110 are possible
over South Texas on Wednesday before clouds and rain arrive. In the West,
a ridge will build, bringing dry weather to the Northwest and above
average temperatures to California and the Great Basin. Offshore winds
will keep fire weather concerns elevated over parts of California.


Eovino


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx...

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