472 
FXUS64 KMRX 291835
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
235 PM EDT Tue Sep 29 2026

...New DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 235 PM EDT Tue Sep 29 2026

- Dry conditions are expected through Thursday, along with a 
continued warming trend. 

- Widespread rainfall is likely this weekend with locally heavy totals
  possible. 

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 235 PM EDT Tue Sep 29 2026

Currently, ridging is centered to our southwest with a closed low 
over the desert southwest. Surface high pressure remain in place 
across the eastern U.S., leading to continued dry weather. By 
Wednesday, ridging will expand in the east as the western closed low 
progresses into the southern Rockies. Height rises will continue the 
recent warming trend with most places rising well into the 80s to 
low 90s in the south. By Thursday, the closed low will eject into 
the Great Plains, leading to the development of an open wave low 
pressure system. Further height rises in the east will push 500mb 
heights to 5,900m or higher over the region, which are above the 
90th percentile for this time of year. When combined with broad 
southerly low-level flow, this will make the case for further 
temperature increases, likely around 90 degrees for most southern 
and central valley areas. 

By Friday, the closed low lift to our north with the surface low 
following the same trend. The frontal boundary from the initial low 
will gradually approach from the north and reach the area by 
Saturday. The flow, while still weak, will be southerly to 
southwesterly, bringing abundant moisture into the region. This is 
evidenced by PWAT values exceeding 1.6 inches, the 90th percentile 
for this time of year. As the front remains over the area Saturday 
and Sunday, persistent rain can be expected. This will be helpful 
for ongoing drought conditions in portions of the area, but locally 
heavy or persistent rain could increase potential of localized 
flooding. By early next week, milder and drier conditions are 
expected as high pressure from the north pushes the front to our 
south. 

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1259 PM EDT Tue Sep 29 2026

Overall, quiet aviation conditions are expected with limited cloud
cover and light and variable winds through the day. The main
question again will be development of fog at TRI with MVFR plus
IFR TEMPO group maintained at this time. Otherwise, a similarly
quiet day can be expected again tomorrow. 

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             59  91  62  92 /   0   0   0   0 
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  57  88  59  89 /   0   0   0   0 
Oak Ridge, TN                       57  86  59  88 /   0   0   0   0 
Tri Cities Airport, TN              54  83  56  85 /   0   0   0   0 

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BW
AVIATION...BW


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