Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
336 AM EDT Wed Sep 30 2026

Valid 12Z Wed Sep 30 2026 - 12Z Fri Oct 02 2026

...There is a Moderate Risk (level 3/4) of excessive rainfall over parts
of the Central Rockies/Central High Plains, Central Plains/Middle
Mississippi Valley and Southern Plains on Wednesday...

...There is a Moderate Risk (level 3/4) of excessive rainfall over parts
of the Southern Plains on Thursday...

...There is a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of severe thunderstorms over parts
of the Southern Plains on Wednesday...

Meanwhile, upper-level energy and tropical moisture streaming northward
out of the Gulf into the Southern Plains and Central Rockies/Central High
Plains will produce showers and thunderstorms with heavy rain over the
region on Wednesday. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Moderate Risk (level
3/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of the Southern Plains on Wednesday.
Similarly, the WPC has issued a Moderate Risk (level 3/4) of excessive
rainfall over parts of the Central Rockies/Central High Plains and the
Central Plains/Middle Mississippi Valley for Wednesday. Numerous flash
flooding events are possible. In addition, many streams may flood,
potentially affecting larger rivers. The flooding may include debris flows
in or near recently burned areas.

Considerable flash flooding is possible across portions of the Southern
Plains and the Central Rockies/Central High Plains and Central
Plains/Middle Mississippi Valley on Wednesday. Locally, considerable flash
flooding impacts are also possible across the broader Southern Plains.
Locally, considerable flash and urban flooding, along with river flooding,
is possible across eastern Nebraska into western Iowa on Wednesday. Flash,
urban, and river flooding impacts may also be possible starting Wednesday
across central Texas and southern Oklahoma. Widespread rainfall of 2-3
inches, with locally higher totals, is expected, with the heaviest rain
across the Southern Plains. Also, avoid travel through already flooded and
vulnerable areas. Be especially cautious at night. If you encounter
flooding while driving, �turn around, don�t drown.�

The threat of excessive rainfall continues into Thursday for the Southern
Plains. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Moderate Risk (level 3/4) of
excessive rainfall over parts of the Southern Plains for Thursday.
Numerous flash flooding events are possible. In addition, many streams may
flood, potentially affecting larger rivers. The flooding may include
debris flows in or near recently burned areas.

On Friday, the threat of excessive rainfall will decrease slightly.
Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive
rainfall over parts of the Southern Plains. The associated heavy rain will
create mainly localized flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, small
streams, and narrow canyons/gullies the most vulnerable.

Furthermore, showers and severe thunderstorms will develop over parts of
the Southern Plains on Wednesday. Therefore, the SPC has issued a Slight
Risk (level 2/5) of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Southern Plains
on Wednesday.  The hazards associated with these thunderstorms are
frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few
tornadoes.

Also, a cold front will move into the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes on
Wednesday and Thursday. Ahead of the boundary, rain with embedded
thunderstorms will move into the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes and rain into
the Lower Great Lakes on Friday. Elsewhere, showers and thunderstorms will
also develop along parts of the Florida Coast and parts of the
Central/Western Gulf Coast on Thursday into Friday.


Ziegenfelder


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx...

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