620 
FXUS64 KMRX 300521
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
121 AM EDT Wed Sep 30 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 113 AM EDT Wed Sep 30 2026

- Dry conditions continue through through Thursday, along with a 
  continued warming trend. 

- Widespread rainfall is likely this weekend with locally heavy
  totals possible.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 113 AM EDT Wed Sep 30 2026

A strong ridge of high pressure will remain anchored over the 
southeast through Thursday. This will allow for the continuation 
of dry conditions and warming temperatures, back to above normal 
by around 10 degrees. 

On Friday, the ridge begins to break down and push south as a deep 
and broad long wave trough approaches from the north. Friday should 
start out dry, but chances of rain and storms begin to increase 
during the afternoon hours ahead of the approaching trough and cold 
front. The front moves into our area Friday night and remains in 
place through Saturday, with chance to likely POPS. During this 
time, periods of moderate to locally heavy rainfall are also 
possible as PWs max out around 1.75 to 2.00 inches. These values are 
near the max PW values for this time of year based on BNA sounding 
climatology. Tall skinny CAPE profiles as seen on the NAM soundings, 
0-6km shear around 20kts, and warm layer cloud depths greater than 
10k feet, are all supportive of a moderate to heavy rainfall 
environment. Higher POPs extend into Sunday as well as the front 
stalls just to our south. Between Friday and Sunday, several inches 
or rainfall are expected across the area. Current event total 
amounts range between 2 to 3 inches, with locally higher amounts 
upwards of 4 inches possible. Isolated flooding issues are certainly 
possible, especially as we get into Sunday. 

The front pushes south on Monday and cooler and drier air filter in 
from the north. Highs will back in the 70s and overnight lows in the 
40s/50s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 113 AM EDT Wed Sep 30 2026

VFR conditions are forecast at CHA and TYS through the period. 
Fog looks likely again at TRI late tonight, but as is often the 
case this time of year there is some uncertainty as to whether or 
not the fog bank from Boone Lake drifts over the terminal. Will 
include IFR/TEMPO LIFR fog in the forecast for a few hours based 
on fog from early Tuesday.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             91  63  92  67 /   0   0   0   0 
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  88  60  89  65 /   0   0   0   0 
Oak Ridge, TN                       86  59  87  63 /   0   0   0   0 
Tri Cities Airport, TN              83  56  85  59 /   0   0   0   0 

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...99


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