Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
406 PM EDT Wed Sep 30 2026

Valid 00Z Thu Oct 01 2026 - 00Z Sat Oct 03 2026

...Heavy rainfall spreads southeast this week; impactful flash flooding
continues over portions of the Central and Southern Plains through
Friday....

This afternoon, radar and satellite show a shield of showers and
thunderstorms extending from the Southern Rockies to the Corn Belt as a
vigorous upper-low over the Four Corners interacts with remnants of Polo.
A deepening frontal system ahead of the upper-low is forecast to gradually
migrate toward the Southern Plains over the next 24 hours with the arrival
of a cool and dry airmass from Canada. Unfortunately, the slow movement of
this system combined with a plume of tropical moisture will will maintain
the threat of impactful flash flooding for much of this area through
Friday. For today's Excessive Rainfall Outlook, three Moderate Risk areas
are highlighted over portions of the Central and Southern Plains and Corn
Belt where 1-3" of rain overlap with inundated soils. By tomorrow, the
strongest signal for heavy rainfall will focus ahead of the front from
eastern Oklahoma to south-central Texas where 2-4" and another Moderate
Risk is forecast. Scattered flash flooding also remains possible in the
Central Plains and Midwest, owing to the saturated soil across the region.
By Friday, the focus for isolated to scattered flash flooding will reside
from the Texas Big Bend into the Gulf States ahead of the front. Unsettled
weather is expected across a fairly broad area, however, including the
Southeast and Lower Mid-Atlantic. Meanwhile, daily downpours will continue
over much of the Florida Peninsula near a weak stationary front.

Asherman

Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx...

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