065 
FXUS64 KMRX 301833
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
233 PM EDT Wed Sep 30 2026

...New DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 233 PM EDT Wed Sep 30 2026

- Dry and warm conditions are expected through tomorrow with highs 
well into the 80s to low 90s in the south. 

- Chances for showers and isolated storms will increase through the 
weekend with locally heavy rainfall possible. 

- Drier and cooler conditions will return next week. &&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 233 PM EDT Wed Sep 30 2026

Currently, ridging is in place aloft with a closed low ejecting into 
the southern Rockies. With high pressure remaining in place across 
the eastern U.S. and southerly flow, dry and warm conditions can be 
expected with temperatures well above normal. By Thursday, the 
closed low will eject into the Great Plains, leading to the 
development of a surface low and open wave / surface frontal 
boundary. Locally, ridging will increase with 500mb heights reaching 
above 5,880m, values typical in July. This makes the case for 
further surface heating and highs reaching well into the 80s to low 
90s in the south. Also, as recent high pressure shifts off to the 
east, increasing moisture can also be expected. 

By Friday, the closed low/shortwave will lift to the northeast with 
the frontal boundary approaching from the northwest ahead of 
Canadian high pressure. With continued moisture advection, this 
pattern will produce widespread rain chances through the weekend as 
the front stays near or north of the area. PWAT values will reach 
above 1.6 inches, which is above the 90th percentile, suggesting 
locally heavy rainfall rates are possible. There are also 
indications of some elevated instability early in the weekend, which 
would be sufficient for at least low-end chances for convection. 
Overall QPF totals have decreased, but there is still a low 
probability for hazardous weather for isolated flooding. 

Early next week, a pattern shift is expected as high pressure 
expands from the north, pushing the front south of our area. This 
will lead to northerly flow and cooler and drier conditions, 
especially at night. At this time, models differ on the southward 
extent of this frontal boundary progression, which would affect how 
much cooler of conditions are expected. 

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 135 PM EDT Wed Sep 30 2026

Overall, quiet aviation conditions are expected with light and
variable winds and some clouds around 10,000 feet AGL or higher.
The main question tonight into Thursday morning will be fog
development at TRI. At this time, it has been left out based on
today's morning trends. Tomorrow's conditions will be similar to
today. 

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             63  92  68  92 /   0   0   0  40 
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  59  89  66  89 /   0   0   0  50 
Oak Ridge, TN                       59  88  65  87 /   0   0   0  50 
Tri Cities Airport, TN              56  84  60  85 /   0   0   0  30 

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BW
AVIATION...BW


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