Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
252 AM EDT Thu Oct 01 2026

Valid 12Z Thu Oct 01 2026 - 12Z Sat Oct 03 2026

...There is a Moderate Risk (level 3/4) of excessive rainfall over parts
of the Southern Plains on Thursday...

...There is a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of
the Southern Plains on Friday...

...There is a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of
the Central Gulf Coast, Lower Mississippi Valley, and Southern
Appalachians on Saturday...

Moisture from the Gulf will pool along and ahead of the front over the
Southern Plains, producing showers and thunderstorms with heavy rain on
Thursday. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Moderate Risk (level 3/4) of
excessive rainfall over parts of the Southern Plains. Numerous flash
flooding events are possible. In addition, many streams may flood,
potentially affecting larger rivers. The flooding may include debris flows
in or near recently burned areas. In addition, the WPC has issued a Slight
Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of the Central Plains,
the Middle Mississippi Valley, and parts of the Great Lakes for Thursday.
The associated heavy rain will create mainly localized flash flooding,
with urban areas, roads, small streams, and narrow canyons/gullies the
most vulnerable.

On Friday, rain will develop along and ahead of the front from parts of
the Northeast to the Ohio Valley. In addition, showers and thunderstorms
will continue along and ahead of the front from the Southern Ohio Valley
to the Southern Plains, producing heavy.  Therefore, the WPC has issued a
Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of the Southern
Plains. The associated heavy rain will create mainly localized flash
flooding, with urban areas, roads, small streams, and narrow
canyons/gullies the most vulnerable.

Also, on Friday evening, rain will develop along and near the boundary
over parts of the Northeast. Showers and thunderstorms will develop from
parts of the Mid-Atlantic into the Tennessee Valley and over the Southern
Plains into the Southeast.

Furthermore, a front moving onshore over the Pacific Northwest on Thursday
will move eastward to the Northern Plains by Saturday morning. The system
will produce rain over parts of the Upper Mississippi Valley on Saturday.


Ziegenfelder


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx...

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