740 
FXUS64 KMRX 010519
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
119 AM EDT Thu Oct 1 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1240 AM EDT Thu Oct 1 2026

- Dry and abnormally warm conditions are expected today with 
  highs well into the 80s to low 90s in the south. 

- Chances for showers and isolated storms will increase tomorrow 
  and through the weekend with locally heavy rainfall possible. 

- Drier and cooler conditions will return next week. 

 &&


.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1240 AM EDT Thu Oct 1 2026

Upper level ridging currently pinches up the SE CONUS with 
surface high pressure centered just off of the Mid- Atlantic. One 
last day of area-wide dry weather and abnormally hot temperatures 
today, as a closed low within the pattern eventually phases with 
the trough with its eastward progression. A frontal system 
currently stretching north into the TX and OK panhandles, will be 
knocking on our doorstep as we welcome the first weekend of 
October. With the surface high pressure situated to the east, 
southerly flow will bring a marked return of higher dew points 
this afternoon compared to yesterday.

Moisture surrounds the area during the early morning hours tomorrow 
to our west and south. The frontal system is forecast to enter the 
Mississippi Valley around that time. Although tomorrow starts out 
dry, precipitation chances increase the further we get into the day. 
The frontal system does cross the area sometime late tomorrow into 
early Saturday, however, it will become stationary just to our south 
and not totally clear the area until possibly later Sunday. What 
this means will be periods of wet weather for the entire area this 
weekend. So far, a marginal risk for flash flooding is in place. 
With the highest FFG across our southern areas, some places could 
have the capacity to absorb a lot of the rainfall not bringing much 
of a threat unless training occurs with consecutive heavy 
showers/storms. Right now, Sunday has the heaviest rainfall 
accumulation as the low center moves overhead as it begins to push 
out. Forecast PWATs at this time do show values nearing or going 
just above 2 inches which would be conducive for heavy rain makers. 
As far as any storms, there isn't a severe threat, but there could 
be embedded storms. Instability overall will be lacking. The 
greatest threat this weekend will be heavy rain with the possibility 
of localized flash flooding. Grand total QPF amounts, though being 
fine tuned with each forecast, show the entire forecast area seeing 
at least one inch of rain. Some areas could see over two, possibly 
up to 3 inches when everything is said and done. Due to overall 
uncertainty of amounts still, high FFG, etc. have elected to 
continue with low probability of hazardous weather for Friday onward.

Rain clears the region as we enter a new work week next week. A 
secondary front will send everything out of here replacing it with 
dry weather, northerly flow, and temperatures typically recorded in 
early October. Surface high pressure sinks in from the north and 
frontal systems until the end of the period are forecast to remain 
well to our south and to the north, for now.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1240 AM EDT Thu Oct 1 2026

May be some fog development at TRI late tonight, but confidence 
that it will occur is too low to include more than a tempo MVFR 
fog group for a few hours. Otherwise, will have a VFR forecast 
for the period all sites. 

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             92  68  92  69 /   0   0  40  40 
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  89  65  89  67 /   0   0  40  60 
Oak Ridge, TN                       87  64  88  66 /   0   0  50  60 
Tri Cities Airport, TN              84  59  85  63 /   0   0  30  40 

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KS
AVIATION...99


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