AWUS01 KWNH 011201
FFGMPD
TXZ000-OKZ000-011800-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1418
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
800 AM EDT Thu Oct 01 2026

Areas affected...TX Hill Country to the Red River Valley of the
South

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 011200Z - 011800Z

SUMMARY...Locally training showers and thunderstorms with very
high rainfall rates will continue through midday across portions
of the TX Hill Country up into the Red River Valley of the South.
Additional areas of flash flooding are expected, with locally
significant urban flooding impacts possible.

DISCUSSION...The early morning GOES-E IR satellite imagery along
with radar shows an extensive axis of cold-topped convection
associated with heavy showers and thunderstorms extending from the
TX Hill Country northeastward up through north-central TX and
adjacent areas of the Red River Valley. The convection continues
to be supported by an ejecting closed low and associated upper
trough ejecting gradually out across the central and southern Plains.

The upper-level flow remains quite divergent aloft across the
region given the approach of stronger DPVA and related upper-jet
forcing. This will continue to favor at least semi-organized
clusters or bands of convection through midday as it interacts
with a very moist and relatively unstable southerly low-level jet
of 30 to 40+ kts.

MUCAPE values of 1000 to 2000 J/kg are in place with PWs a solid 2
to 3 standard deviations above normal. In fact, the values are
generally near 2 inches across north-central TX and the Red River
Valley region, but are as high as 2.25+ inches down toward the TX
Hill Country and much of the broader Lower Rio Grande Valley.

OSPO ALPW data confirms a deep tropical sounding profile with
moisture extremely concentrated in the warm cloud-bearing 850/700
mb layer. This focused moisture, moderate instability and axis of
deeper layer ascent should continue to favor at least some
localized swath of 2 to 3 inch/hour rainfall rates as the overall
larger scale convective axis shifts slowly southeastward.

There is enough cell-training and storm organization to support
some additional rainfall amounts as high as 3 to 5+ inches going
through midday. The latest experimental WoFS guidance along with a
consensus of the 06Z HREF/REFS solutions supports this evolution.
However, it should be noted that recent runs of the WoFS appear
underdone with the short-term convective potential across the TX
Hill Country and adjacent areas of south-central TX.

Additional scattered to numerous areas of flash flooding are
expected, and there may be locally significant urban flooding
impacts. This will especially be the case around the Dallas-Fort
Worth metropolitan area over the next few hours.

Orrison

ATTN...WFO...EWX...FWD...OUN...SHV...SJT...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...ORN...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON   34809552 34419484 33439491 32059588 30579720 
            29219861 28649985 28850075 29400105 30520033 
            32229873 33569769 34569653 

$$
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