AWUS01 KWNH 011246
FFGMPD
FLZ000-011800-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1419
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
845 AM EDT Thu Oct 01 2026

Areas affected...Southeast FL

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 011245Z - 011800Z

SUMMARY...An increase in shower and thunderstorm activity is
expected this morning, and some localized cell-training may foster
an urban flash flood threat to the I-95 urban corridor from West
Palm Beach on down through Miami.

DISCUSSION...The early morning GOES-E IR satellite imagery along
with radar and surface data shows a broken axis relatively
well-organized showers and thunderstorms crossing the FL Straits,
with the activity approaching southeast FL.

The convection is aligned with a corridor of stronger low-level
moisture convergence associated with an inverted surface trough,
but is also coinciding with a region of favorable upper-level jet
divergence/outflow over the region that is downstream of mid-level
troughing farther west over the Gulf of Mexico and nearby Yucatan Peninsula.

MLCAPE values across southeast FL right now are conducive for
sustainable convection over the next few hours with values of 1500
to 2000 K/kg in place. A deeply tropical vertical column is in
place with PWs of 2.25 to 2.5 inches. This will support extreme
rainfall rate potential with any organized convective cells, with
some rates as high as 2 to 3+ inches/hour.

The early morning CAM guidance, especially led by the 06Z REFS
guidance, and also the WRF-ARW/ARW2 solutions from the 06Z HREF,
suggest potential for several inches of rain from convective
cell-training that sets up. The latest radar trends suggest this
will be a strong possibility, with some bands already noted over
the FL Straits.

Some 3 to 5 inch rainfall totals cannot be ruled out where these
cell-training bands set up near the I-95 corridor of southeast FL.
This will definitely foster an urban flash flood threat, and areas
from near West Palm Beach down through Miami should closely
monitor this over the next few hours.

Orrison

ATTN...WFO...MFL...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...NWC...

LAT...LON   26928019 26807985 26367983 25847993 25438019 
            25378050 25558068 25838072 26218068 26768044 
            
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