Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
427 PM EDT Thu Oct 01 2026

Valid 00Z Fri Oct 02 2026 - 00Z Sun Oct 04 2026

...Excessive rainfall potential lingers over the Southern Plains through
Friday before shifting into the Southeast and Gulf Coast this weekend...


A slow moving cold front will focus showers and thunderstorms along its
boundary from South Texas up through the Midwest and into the Lower Great
Lakes tonight. Storms will persist over the southern and eastern Texas on
Friday due to the quasi-stationary nature of the aforementioned front,
though, the northern section of it continues to move east spreading
scattered showers and thunderstorms into the Ohio Valley, Northeast and
Mid-Atlantic. Subtropical moisture originating from the Caribbean will
flow northward and interact with a weak convergence zone along the Gulf
Coast. This will lead to some thunderstorm and heavy rainfall potential on
Friday. The slow moving front finally arrives over the Southeast and Gulf
Coast by Saturday, when it will combine with the aforementioned moisture
to generate heavy to excessive rainfall from South Texas to the Carolinas.

Elsewhere, another low pressure system will swing south into the northern
tier states on Saturday, generating additional showers across the Dakotas
and Upper Midwest/Great Lakes. Persistent ridging over the West will
promote above average temperatures for much of the region through early
next week. Minimum temperatures in the low to mid 70s will provide little
to no overnight relief to those without adequate cooling or hydration.
Extreme heat warnings are in effect for parts of SoCal from the San Diego
Metro to the Los Angeles Metro for the next several days. Heat advisories
are in effect for much of Central California west of the Sierra this
weekend.


Kebede


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx...

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