Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
400 AM EDT Fri Oct 02 2026

Valid 12Z Fri Oct 02 2026 - 12Z Sun Oct 04 2026

...Another day of excessive rainfall threat across eastern Texas to
eastern Oklahoma before shifting to the Gulf Coast and the Southeast this
weekend...

...October heatwave building across central and southern California will
spread northeast into the Great Basin during the weekend...


A wet weather pattern lingering across the Southern Plains will gradually
shift eastward into the Gulf Coast and the Southeast this weekend as an
anomalous October heatwave builds across the western U.S. This pattern
will deliver another day of moderate to heavy rainfall near a stationary
front across eastern Texas to eastern Oklahoma where the Weather
Prediction Center maintains a slight risk of excessive rainfall for today
and into tonight. Thereafter, a tropical wave moving westward through the
Caribbean will bring increasingly unsettled weather through the Gulf
during the weekend, with showers and embedded thunderstorms lingering
along the Gulf Coast where as much as a few inches of rainfall totals can
be expected near the immediate coast. Meanwhile, the weather pattern has
allowed the front to be more progressive across the northern tier of the
country with a round of showers and a few thunderstorms moving through the
Midwest and the Northeast today. These showers and storms will reach the
Mid-Atlantic on Saturday and then linger into Sunday as a wave of low
pressure develops along this front. An upper-level wave will also help
shift the heavy rainfall threat into the Southeast on Sunday.

As the wet pattern persists across the South, an anomalous ridge of high
pressure will help build an October heatwave across the western U.S.
through the weekend. Heat advisories and excessive heat warnings are in
effect for portions of central and southern California. Saturday is
forecast to be the hottest day of the period, running 15 to 20 degrees
above normal, pushing coastal areas well into the 90s and valleys as high
as 107F. Warm nights will provide minimal relief. The heat will then
spread further northeast during the weekend, with record-challenging high
temperatures in the 80s and near 90 degrees emerging across the Great
Basin. In contrast, Freeze Warnings and Frost Advisories are in effect
near the Canadian border of the upper Midwest and upper Great Lakes. The
associated cool airmass will then overspread much of the Northeast to
deliver fine and cool fall weather. Meanwhile, a round of showers will
precede a low pressure system moving across the Northern Plains this
weekend followed by gusty northwesterly winds as cooler and drier air
moves in behind a cold front.


Kong


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx...

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