024 
FXUS64 KMRX 020647
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
247 AM EDT Fri Oct 2 2026

...New DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 245 AM EDT Fri Oct 2 2026

- Chances for showers and isolated storms will increase later
  today and through the weekend with locally heavy rainfall  
  possible.

- Drier and cooler conditions will return next week. 

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 245 AM EDT Fri Oct 2 2026

A front currently arcs through the Ohio Valley crossing the 
Mississippi and southern Plains and southward through central Texas. 
Upper level ridging is being compressed as the shortwave associated 
with the front moves eastward towards our area. Surface high 
pressure remains nearly anchored just off of the Mid-Atlantic coast.

Yesterday was our last dry day area-wide at least until next week. 
Later this morning, the portion of the front arcing through the Ohio 
Valley will cross into western Tennessee. The morning will start 
dry, abnormally warm/humid. Chances for precipitation then begin to 
increase as we get into the afternoon hours. The frontal system does 
cross the area sometime later tonight into early tomorrow, however, 
it will become stationary just to our south and not totally clear 
the area until possibly late Sunday into early Monday. What this 
means will be periods of wet weather for the entire area this 
weekend. So far, a marginal risk for flash flooding is in place 
except for a majority of southwest Virginia. With the highest FFG 
across our southern areas, some places could have the capacity to 
take a good amount of rainfall and not have much of a threat unless 
training occurs with consecutive heavy showers/storms. Sunday still 
appears will have the heaviest rainfall amounts as the low center 
moves overhead as the system finally pushes out. Forecast PWATs for 
Sunday at this time do show values nearing or edging above 2 inches, 
which would be conducive for heavy rain makers.

As far as any storms, there isn't a severe threat, but there could 
be some embedded storms. Instability overall will be lacking with 
poor lapse rates and shear. The greatest threat this weekend will be 
periods of heavy rain with the possibility of localized flash 
flooding. Grand total QPF amounts, though being fine tuned with each 
new forecast, show the entire forecast area seeing at least 1 inch 
of rain. Amounts of over 2 inches has been cut down as we've gotten 
closer to the weekend, as well as any values above 3 inches. 
Greatest amounts are forecast south of I-40 and along the higher 
terrain of the Southern Appalachians.

Rain clears the region as we enter a new work week next week. A 
secondary front will send everything out of here replacing it with 
dry weather, northerly flow, and temperatures typically recorded in 
early October. Surface high pressure sinks in from the north and 
frontal systems until the end of the period are forecast to remain 
well to our south and to the north, for now. However, there's some 
uncertainty with regard to the southern extent of moisture and if it 
may bring light precipitation to our southern areas.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 130 AM EDT Fri Oct 2 2026

Predominant VFR conditions are expected for the period. Latest
HREF does show a brief period around 10-16z this morning where 
probabilities of MVFR cigs is around 40 percent at KCHA. Not 
confident enough to include MVFR mentions at this time, but have 
introduced a low SCT deck and will monitor trends into the 
morning. Chance for showers will be increasing Friday night,
however, it looks like the greatest opportunity will come near or
just shortly after 6Z. 

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             91  69  87  68 /  40  20  60  60 
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  88  67  82  67 /  20  50  50  60 
Oak Ridge, TN                       87  66  80  65 /  30  50  50  60 
Tri Cities Airport, TN              84  64  77  63 /  10  50  70  70 

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KS
AVIATION...KRS


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