Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
358 PM EDT Fri Oct 02 2026

Valid 00Z Sat Oct 03 2026 - 00Z Mon Oct 05 2026

...Excessive rainfall threat shifts into the Southeast and Gulf Coast this
weekend...

...Long duration October heatwave builds across central and southern
California...


A wet weather pattern lingering across the Southern Plains will gradually
shift eastward into the Gulf Coast and the Southeast this weekend as an
anomalous October heatwave builds across the western U.S. This pattern
will deliver another day of moderate to heavy rainfall near a stationary
front across eastern Texas to eastern Oklahoma where the Weather
Prediction Center maintains a slight risk (at least 15% chance) of
excessive rainfall for tonight. Thereafter, a tropical wave moving
westward through the Caribbean will bring increasingly unsettled weather
through the Gulf during the weekend, with showers and embedded
thunderstorms lingering along the Gulf Coast where as much as a few inches
of rainfall totals can be expected near the immediate coast. Moisture
associated with this tropical wave will linger and interact with the
synoptic slowly moving across the Southeast. This interaction will produce
additional thunderstorm activity with potential excessive rainfall
concerns in the Southeast. Another slight risk is in effect for an area
extending form the Central Gulf Coast to the Southeast Coast for Sunday.
Meanwhile, a low pressure system will sweep across the northern tier
bringing scattered to isolated showers and thunderstorms to the Upper
Midwest/Great Lakes on Saturday into Sunday morning.

As the wet pattern persist across the South, an anomalous ridge of high
pressure will help build a late season October heatwave across the western
U.S. through the weekend. Heat advisories and excessive heat warnings are
in effect for portions of central and southern California. Saturday is
forecast to be the hottest day of the period, running 15 to 20 degrees
above normal, pushing coastal areas well into the 90s and valleys as high
as 107�F. Warm nights will provide minimal relief. The heat will then
expand further northeast during the weekend, with high temperatures 80s
and near 90 degrees emerging across the Great Basin. Extreme heat warnings
are in effect for much of coastal southern California, while heat
advisories are in effect for central California. Elsewhere, clear
conditions with high pressure overhead could lead to another evening of
frost and freezing conditions over portions of northern Wisconsin and
Michigan tonight.


Kebede/Kong


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx...

--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7.2 (Linux-x86_64)
 * Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)