Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
400 AM EDT Sat Oct 03 2026

Valid 12Z Sat Oct 03 2026 - 12Z Mon Oct 05 2026

...Excessive rainfall threat across the Southeast on Sunday while
continuing across the central Gulf Coast and southern Texas while this
weekend...

...A long duration October heatwave emerging across central and southern
California before spreading into the Great Basin...

Over the next couple of days, the excessive rainfall threat will remain
focused along the Gulf Coast to the Southeast as an anomalous October
heatwave builds across the western U.S. The lingering wet weather pattern
results from a cool and dry air mass across the northern tier of the
country interacting with a tropical wave over the Gulf. The Weather
Prediction Center maintains a slight risk (at least 15% chance) of
excessive rainfall for today near the central Gulf Coast to the Florida
Panhandle in addition to the lower Texas Gulf Coast. By Sunday, the
excessive rainfall threat is forecast to lift northeastward across the
interior Southeast and into the Carolinas with the passage of a weak upper
trough. A few additional inches of heavy rain can be expected along the
central Gulf Coast, with a maximum of 7 inches possible near the immediate
coast of Alabama. The heavy rainfall threat will gradually decrease from
Sunday night to Monday morning for the Southeast and along the Gulf Coast
as the trough nudges the front farther south.

Meanwhile, a low pressure system will sweep across the northern tier
states bringing scattered to isolated showers and thunderstorms to the
Upper Midwest/Great Lakes from today into Sunday morning. By early Monday
morning, a stronger cold front trailing south from the intensifying low
pressure system in Quebec could bring heavy showers and embedded
thunderstorms into interior New England. Across the Mid-Atlantic, showers
behind a cold front early this morning will move off the coast as the cool
air mass from the Ohio Valley to the Northeast takes over.

As the wet pattern persists across the South, an anomalous ridge of high
pressure will help build a late season October heatwave across the western
U.S. through the weekend and into next week. Temperatures will run 15 to
20 degrees above normal, bringing highs well into the 90s toward the coast
and adjacent urban areas, with some areas in the Central Valley reaching
100. Overnight lows in the mid to upper 70s in the Los Angeles and San
Diego urban areas will provide little relief through the heat wave.
Extreme heat warnings are in effect for much of coastal southern
California, while heat advisories are in effect for central California.
The heat will then expand farther northeast over the next couple of days,
with high temperatures in the 80s and near 90 degrees emerging across the
Great Basin.  Elsewhere, clear conditions accompanying a high pressure
system have prompted frost advisories and freeze warnings early this
morning for portions of northern Wisconsin and Michigan.


Kong


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx...

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