592 
FXUS64 KMRX 030653
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
253 AM EDT Sat Oct 3 2026

...New DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 238 AM EDT Sat Oct 3 2026

- Several rounds of rain expected through the weekend, favoring
  northern areas this morning, then switching to southern and 
  eastern areas this afternoon through Sunday.

- Drier and cooler conditions will return next week. 

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 238 AM EDT Sat Oct 3 2026

In the upper levels, a broad trough extends from the Dakotas to New 
England. A weak ridge is over the extreme Southeast (FL/GA/SC). The 
latest surface analysis shows a slow moving cold front just upstream 
over Middle Tennessee. Scattered showers will continue overnight 
mainly north of I-40. A few rumbles of thunder cannot be ruled out 
but showers have been shallow so far. This afternoon scattered 
showers and isolated storms will be mainly south of I-40 and east of 
Knoxville, closer to the foothills and mountains as the slow moving 
cold front moves into East Tennessee. Rain chances are highest on 
Sunday as a weak shortwave moves through the Ohio Valley to the 
north. The frontal boundary will be nearly stationary just to our 
south bringing overrunning conditions. Additional rainfall this 
weekend will be 1 to 2 inches with isolated higher amounts. Some 
locations already received 1 to 2 inches over the past several
hours due to repeated showers. 

The rain will end by Monday morning as a trough pushes the cold 
front out of the region. At the surface, high pressure settles in 
over the Eastern U.S. Dry weather is expected all next week with 
high pressure dominating the pattern. Temperatures will be near 
normal early in the week with a slight warming trend late in the 
week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 146 AM EDT Sat Oct 3 2026

Unsettled conditions are expected overnight, with scattered
showers having the most likely chance to impact TYS/TRI through
the morning until around mid-day. Trends suggest rain chances 
will be more limited for these two locations for the afternoon 
and evening. Chances to have showers impact CHA seem best in the 
afternoon to early evening. HREF probabilities also highlight a
40-60% chance for MVFR cigs at all three sites mid to late
morning, before lifting to low VFR for the afternoon. 

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             87  69  79  63 /  60  70  90  20 
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  82  67  77  62 /  60  50  90  10 
Oak Ridge, TN                       80  65  76  59 /  60  50  90  10 
Tri Cities Airport, TN              77  63  72  58 /  80  50  90  20 

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...McD
AVIATION...KRS


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