812 
FXUS64 KMRX 031905
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
305 PM EDT Sat Oct 3 2026

...New DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 251 PM EDT Sat Oct 3 2026

- A few scattered showers into this evening, then additional
  widespread rain for much of Sunday, especially for locations 
  near Georgia and North Carolina.

- Drier conditions will return next week starting Monday. 

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 251 PM EDT Sat Oct 3 2026

A lot of rain fell earlier in eastern portions of Knox County and 
surrounding locales, with upwards of 3-4 inches in a narrow band 
from this morning's heaviest and steadiest rain. A handful of 
showers are ongoing now and a couple of additional showers, or even 
a storm, could develop late this afternoon into the early evening 
hours, though activity will remain far more isolated versus the 
widespread coverage from this morning.

In response to the approaching boundary tomorrow and better upper
level support, we should see a reflourishing of the rain shield 
on Sunday, mainly south of I-40 and and south of I-81. This will 
yield an additional half inch pretty broadly, though if upper 
support helps, CAMs indicate potential for another narrow strip of
up to 2" of rainfall. It seems improbable this will fall on this 
morning's super soaked areas, so again flood risk continues to be 
on the low end. Rain rates should also generally remain on the low
side, except if we see some thunderstorm development along the 
leading edge of activity, much like the leading edge this morning 
had the heaviest rates. Since the atmosphere is quite saturated 
vertically, yielding low MLCAPE, I am not expecting any severe 
weather with the still to come rain, despite the marginally 
supportive wind shear.

Next week there's broad troughing way up north in Canada, broad 
ridging out in the American West, and a rather benign pattern 
locally. No significant height departures should mean pleasantly 
warm temperatures and dry weather will reign supreme for much, if
not all, of the work week. 

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 127 PM EDT Sat Oct 3 2026

Rain showers continue to dissipate across the area. Precipitation
will fully end by mid afternoon. Low stratus will continue to 
promote MVFR conditions through much of the morning, gradually 
improving into the mid afternoon. Low VFR cigs are expected to 
persist through the period. The next round of showers is expected
to develop late tonight into Sunday morning. I have included light
light beginning just prior to daybreak with a return to MVFR cigs. 
Dips in visibility are likely, but confidence in
timing/significance is low at this time. 

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             69  78  64  82 /  40  80  30   0 
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  66  78  62  79 /  40  70  30   0 
Oak Ridge, TN                       65  77  59  78 /  30  70  30   0 
Tri Cities Airport, TN              63  74  58  75 /  30  70  40   0 

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Wellington
AVIATION...BH


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