Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
418 AM EDT Sun Oct 04 2026

Valid 12Z Sun Oct 04 2026 - 12Z Tue Oct 06 2026

...Moderate risk of excessive rainfall today along the lower Texas coast
while a slight risk extends from the central Gulf Coast through the
Southeast...

...A long duration October heatwave building across central and southern
California, and spreading into the Great Basin...

Heavy rainfall threat will remain focused along the Gulf Coast and across
the Southeast, while an anomalous October heatwave builds across the
western U.S. The lingering wet weather pattern is the result of continued
interaction of a tropical wave in the Gulf with a cool and dry air mass
that has settled across the eastern two-thirds of the country. The Weather
Prediction Center now highlights a Moderate Risk of excessive rainfall for
the lower Texas coast for today and tonight as additional heavy rain bands
forming along a stationary convergence zone just offshore are expected to
swing onshore. Meanwhile, moderate to heavy rainfall near a wavy
stationary front is forecast to overspread the central Gulf Coast through
the Southeast and into the Carolinas. The heaviest forecast rainfall
remains near the Gulf Shores to the western portion of the Florida
Panhandle where a maximum of 7 inches is possible with the passage of a
convection cluster. Flood Watches are in effect from coastal Mississippi
to the Florida Panhandle. The heavy rainfall threat will gradually
decrease late tonight and into Monday morning for the Southeast and along
the Gulf Coast as the front nudges farther south. However, heavy rainbands
associated with the stationary offshore convergence zone will be slow to
depart the lower Texas coast through much of Monday.

Meanwhile, a low pressure system sweeping across the Canadian border will
fuel scattered showers and thunderstorms across the Great Lakes this
morning. A strong cold front trailing from the intensifying system could
bring heavy showers and embedded thunderstorms into interior New England
by early Monday morning. Across the Mid-Atlantic, showers behind a cold
front early this morning will move off the coast as the cool air mass from
the Ohio Valley to the Northeast takes over. A high pressure system across
the Great Lakes to the Midwest will build eastward, delivering fine and
cool fall weather for much of the eastern U.S. Monday and Tuesday except
the Sunshine state where showers and thunderstorms associated with the
wavy front persist.

While the wet pattern persists across the South, an anomalous ridge of
high pressure will build a late season October heatwave across the western
U.S. through this week. Temperatures will run 15 to 20 degrees above
normal, bringing highs well into the 90s toward the coast and adjacent
urban areas, with some areas in the Central Valley of California soaring
into the lower 100s. Overnight lows in the mid to upper 70s in the Los
Angeles and San Diego urban areas will provide little relief through the
heatwave. Extreme Heat Warnings are in effect for much of Southern
California, with Heat Advisories extending across the Central Valley and
Bay Area. The heat will then expand farther northeast over the next couple
of days, with high temperatures in the 80s and near 90 degrees emerging
across the Great Basin. A few daily temperature records could fall over
the next few days in California and the Great Basin as a result.


Kong


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx...

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