610 
FXUS64 KMRX 040646
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
246 AM EDT Sun Oct 4 2026

...New DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 240 AM EDT Sun Oct 4 2026

- Rain returns to the region today favoring southern and eastern
  most locations nearest North Carolina and Georgia.

- Dry weather trend beginning tomorrow and lasting much of the
  coming week ahead. Slightly cooler temperatures. 

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 240 AM EDT Sun Oct 4 2026

Currently in a calm period before rain chances return later this 
morning. Totals across the area yesterday amounted to 1 and a half 
to over 2, and even isolated 3+ inch amounts up through the valley. 
Much needed rainfall for our area.

Today, we're expecting one last push of rain showers for the area 
when the frontal system draped to our south brings a weak low center 
currently in eastern Mississippi to our southeast border before 
heading out. Subtle shortwave energy will round the base of the 
trough moving overhead today. Increased jet dynamics and thus, 
evacuation aloft, will support the development of showers mainly 
along the I-40 corridor and south. Just above a half inch of 
additional rainfall is forecast for the southern valley and east to 
the border with North Carolina. But much like yesterday, activity 
that ends up training and dumping heavier rainfall amounts, may lead 
to values above that. A marginal risk for flash flooding is still in 
place with lesser rainfall amounts expected in SW Virginia and 
northeastern Tennessee, however. Embedded thunder could be possible 
if a shower becomes tall enough. 

Some light activity could linger for far southeastern areas through 
early tomorrow before surface high pressure dives south and east 
replacing the unsettled weather. The rest of the week beginning 
tomorrow can be characterized as dry, temperatures just above normal 
albeit cooler, and with northwesterly flow. A return of 
precipitation chances possibly won't be until next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 144 AM EDT Sun Oct 4 2026

MVFR to IFR cigs will be predominant through much of the period, 
with HREF probabilities suggesting a chance for relief wouldn't
arrive until the late afternoon or evening. Additionally, some 
scattered showers are also expected to develop mid morning. The 
best coverage will be late morning into early afternoon, however, 
a few showers may remain across the region throughout the day so 
VCSH is carried through the whole period. CHA will have the
greatest chance for isolated thunder. 

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             79  63  82  56 /  70  30   0   0 
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  78  61  79  52 /  70  10   0   0 
Oak Ridge, TN                       78  57  78  51 /  50  10   0   0 
Tri Cities Airport, TN              75  57  74  46 /  40  20   0   0 

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KS
AVIATION...KRS


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