AWUS01 KWNH 041416
FFGMPD
TXZ000-042014-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1441
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1015 AM EDT Sun Oct 04 2026

Areas affected...South Texas

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 041414Z - 042014Z

Summary...Repeating showers and thunderstorms across South Texas
may lead to localized flash flooding through this afternoon.

Discussion...The latest analysis across the region shows a
stationary boundary draped right along the Texas coast. This
feature, combined with the very tropical airmass, is the main
driving factor for repeating showers and thunderstorms across
South Texas this morning.

The tropical airmass is characterized by precipitable water values
over 2 inches, locally over 2.5" (CFP 12Z sounding was 2.62".
Very deep warm cloud depths and the skinny CAPE profiles are all
indicative of a very efficient warm rain processes. A steady flux
of moisture transport into the area will keep the threat of
showers and thunderstorms through the afternoon hours.

Latest hi-res guidance showers scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms through at least 18Z followed by more scattered
activity between 18Z and 00Z. Rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches,
locally higher up to 4 to 5 inches, will be possible in the
outlook area over the next 6 hours.

The main risk of flash flooding will be for any urban location and
poor drainage areas.

Taylor

ATTN...WFO...BRO...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...NWC...

LAT...LON   27229766 27189725 27139728 26559725 26349702 
            25949710 25599721 25949771 26319769 26959772 
            

$$

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