Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
350 PM EDT Sun Oct 04 2026

Valid 00Z Mon Oct 05 2026 - 00Z Wed Oct 07 2026

... Locally heavy rainfall will continue into Monday for southern Texas
and northern Florida...

...An October heatwave will remain across central and southern California
into this week...

... A cold front will bring an Autumnal chill to the Great Lakes and
Northeast...

Tropical moisture and a slow moving front across northern Florida into
southern Georgia will continue to promote numerous showers and
thunderstorms on Monday with the threat of locally heavy rainfall and
isolated instances of flash flooding. A Flood Watch remains active across
the region through Monday evening with an additional 2-4 inches of rain
possible. Meanwhile, southern Texas will continue to see locally heavy
rainfall streaming in from the Gulf where a Slight Risk of Excessive
Rainfall is in effect tomorrow. Another couple of inches of rain are
possible and will further saturate southern Texas, which has already had
several inches of rain today. Urban areas, such as Brownsville, will be
the most susceptible to flash flooding if storms are able to move inland
from the coastline and train over a period of time. Turn around, don't
drown.

An anomalous ridge of high pressure will maintain a late season October
heat wave across southern and central California into the Great Basin.
Temperatures will run 15 to 20 degrees above normal, bringing highs well
into the 90s toward the coast and adjacent urban areas, with some areas in
the Central Valley of California soaring into the lower 100s. Overnight
lows in the mid to upper 70s in the Los Angeles and San Diego urban areas
will provide little relief through the heatwave. Extreme Heat Warnings are
in effect for much of Southern California and portions of the interior
deserts, with Heat Advisories extending across the Central Valley and Bay
Area. As for the rest of the Mountain West, the ridge of high pressure
will hold on across the region, raising high temperatures into the middle
and upper 80s, around 10-20 degrees above average for typical Early
October temperatures. These unseasonably warm temperatures will combine
with gusty winds and low relative humidity to also bring a fire weather
risk on Monday for the upper Mountain West.

In contrast to a summer feel-like heat across the West, a cold front
moving across the Great Lakes this afternoon and across the Northeast on
Monday will result in an autumnal chill. High temperatures in the 60s and
even some upper 50s will be possible from Michigan to Maine with
widespread morning low temperatures in the middle 30s to middle 40s. This
is one of the first cold shots of the fall season and will bring some
agricultural risk. Frost Advisories and Freeze Warnings are in effect for
Monday morning across portions of  Minnesota and Wisconsin. The cold front
will then progress southward and bring a taste of fall to parts of the
Southeast as far south as Tennessee and the Carolinas by Tuesday. Expect
high temperatures in the low 70s to the low 80s with cool morning low
temperatures in the 40s and 50s. Enjoy!!



Wilder


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx...

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