767 
FXUS64 KMRX 041835
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
235 PM EDT Sun Oct 4 2026

...New DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 230 PM EDT Sun Oct 4 2026

- Remaining rain to gradually lessen through this evening.

- Dry weather trend beginning tomorrow and lasting most of the
  coming week ahead. 

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 230 PM EDT Sun Oct 4 2026

Rain should lessen with time across the southernmost counties, with 
light mist, sprinkles, or low clouds possible for much of the area 
until a significantly drier airmass pushes through overnight tonight 
from the north. This will conclude this beneficial bout of rain. 
Patchy fog tonight is possible before lower dewpoints arrive from 
the north.

For the bulk of the work week we'll be in a benign regime, with the 
stronger polar jet to our north and an uninterested and weaker 
subtropical jet to our south. Airmass across the region will remain 
pleasantly warm, so daytime afternoon temperatures will remain near 
80F, or slight above that late week. Low temperatures will return 
back to the mid to low 50s with the disappearance of the low clouds. 
Dry weather will dominate the week with no forcing mechanism for 
precipitation and PWAT values beginning rather dry before moderating 
closer to median percentiles. 

Most likely the next best chance of rain holds off until the 
weekend. Euro and GFS both depict a decently strong shortwave in the 
subtropical jet arriving next weekend, with their ensemble means 
starting to cluster in that direction. Interestingly the EC-AI 
ensemble has not moved in this direction yet, so confidence can only 
be described as low to medium at this time range. Still, this system 
would bear watching as the models' orientation and strength of the 
850 wind field both would indicate another shot of healthy rainfall 
plus maybe the first wind event of the season.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 141 PM EDT Sun Oct 4 2026

MVFR conditions will continue at all TAF sites through much of the
afternoon. Drier airmass will pull south into the valley the next
24 hours with gradual improvement in flight conditions. However,
if cloud cover can erode quick enough some MVFR fog is possible
early Monday morning. 

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             63  82  56  83 /  20   0   0   0 
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  60  80  53  81 /  10   0   0   0 
Oak Ridge, TN                       57  79  52  79 /  10   0   0   0 
Tri Cities Airport, TN              56  75  46  77 /  10   0   0   0 

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...DH


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