Here's what I was talking about in MIN_ADMIN:

===
515 
FXUS64 KMRX 132336
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
736 PM EDT Thu Mar 13 2025

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 242 PM EDT Thu Mar 13 2025

Key Messages:

1. Warm temperatures, deep mixing, and gusty winds on Friday will
promote elevated fire danger levels.

2. High winds ramp up across the mountains Friday night. Gusts of
60-70mph likely overnight, before even stronger winds arrive in
the long term.

Discussion:

Some isolated showers and thunderstorms continue to
develop/persist across the region this afternoon. This seems
largely tied to combination of terrain (Cumberland plateau and the
Appalachians) and the northward advance of mid 50s dewpoints. 
Will leave the widespread slight chance PoPs in the forecast 
through the afternoon but I don't expect there will be much more 
coverage than what is currently on radar. That said, model 
soundings show very steep lapse rates so some decently tall storms
capable of small hail and gusty winds if any develop. The window 
of opportunity for any convection will persist through 03z or 
thereabouts. Afterwards, dry conditions are expected through 
Friday.

By late tonight, the upper low/shortwave responsible for the 
isolated showers across the region will have shifted well to our 
southeast. Heights will then rise ahead of the system that will
bring us severe storms on Saturday. As such, tomorrow should be
warmer than even today, with mid and upper 70s forecast for the TN
valley. Winds will begin to pickup as well on Friday. Model
soundings show that we mix out to nearly 7000 ft AGL tomorrow
afternoon, which will tap into some 25-30kt flow aloft and help to
promote gusty afternoon winds. This deep mixing is also going to
lead to low afternoon RH values once again. Will need to
coordinate with fire weather partners on whether any headlines
will be needed. I say that because while lower elevations won't be
near advisory levels during the afternoon tomorrow, the wind field
aloft is going to strengthen considerably as we head into the 
evening hours. To that end, we've gone ahead and upgraded the high
wind watch to a warning for the mountain zones. There could be 
some overlap these stronger winds with the lower RH values which 
would elevate fire danger levels for sure.

Friday night, winds will continue to ramp up in the mountains as
a strong H85 wind field begins to spread across the area in
advance of the severe weather event. Put gusts to 80mph in the
high wind warning. While those types of gusts should largely hold
off until the long term period, gusts of 60-70mph will certainly
be possible Friday night.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through next Thursday)
Issued at 242 PM EDT Thu Mar 13 2025

Key Messages:

1. A very strong and dynamic system will impact the region Friday 
night through early Sunday morning with a high-end, long-duration 
mountain wave event likely across the mountains and foothills 
through Saturday night. 

2. A significant severe weather outbreak is likely across the region 
with the greatest threat in our area being along the Cumberland 
Plateau through southeast Tennessee and southwest North Carolina. 
The greatest threat is for significant and widespread damaging winds 
with tornadoes and large hail also possible.

3. Flooding of urban areas and flood prone locations will be 
possible due to heavy rainfall rates Saturday night.

4. Drier and cooler conditions arrive Sunday night into Monday, 
followed by a warming trend and another system by Wednesday.

Discussion:

Saturday morning, we will be under the influence of broad upper-
level diffluence with a potent shortwave vort max preparing to eject 
from the longwave trough axis across the Arklatex region. An 
occluding surface low will be across the Great Lakes region with a 
trailing cold front across the Mississippi Valley. Due to an 
increasing upper-level jet divergence, a subtle surface low feature 
will develop along this cold front across the Lower Mississippi 
Valley and race northeastward Saturday afternoon and night. This 
will bring an increasing risk of a dangerous significant severe 
weather outbreak for portions of the Mid-South and Tennessee Valley 
across Mississippi, Alabama, and Tennessee. Supercell thunderstorm 
structures capable of large, long-track tornadoes will be possible 
as well as QLCS convection during the evening and overnight hours 
with a continued high-end damaging wind risk and a continued risk of 
tornadoes. Behind the front, cooler and drier weather arrive early 
to mid next week. The following sections are grouped based on order 
of occurrence and with respect to our area:

1. Mountain Waves/Fire Weather

A strengthening pressure gradient and increasing 850mb LLJ over 50 
kt will result in mountain wave high winds increasing into Saturday 
morning and during the day. The LLJ will increase to over 70 kt by 
Saturday evening with intense high-end mountain wave high winds 
expected. Based on extent of winds and dry conditions seen in recent 
days, fire weather is of significant concern, especially in the 
mountains and foothills. The High Wind Watch will be upgraded to a 
High Wind Warning since we are now within 24 to 36 hours of the high 
winds beginning and confidence continues to increase in these 
intense winds for the mountains and foothills.

2. Severe Weather

As mentioned above, a new subtle surface low will be developing 
beneath a region of upper-level divergence across the Lower 
Mississippi Valley on Saturday morning. This low will move rapidly 
northeast Saturday afternoon and evening with the cold front moving 
eastward. With a strong SSW 850mb LLJ around 70+ kt and upper-level 
500mb winds from the WSW at 80+ kt by Saturday evening, effective 
bulk shear will be very strong across the Mid-South and Tennessee 
Valley. 15Z RAP forecast soundings at CHA for 18z Saturday are 
showing low instability and very high shear values. MLCAPE around 
500 J/Kg with EBShear around 55 kt. ESRH between 300 to 500 m2/s2 is 
very high, and the strong low-level shear is resulting in long, 
curved hodographs favorable to tornadoes, including strong and long-
track tornadoes. The big limitation for Saturday's severe convection 
across our region may be morning showers and thunderstorms that 
stabilize portions of the forecast area. This could stabilize the 
boundary layer and limit surface based convection. However, it still 
appears likely that strong southerly flow will lift this northward, 
and at the very least, destabilize the southern plateau and southern 
valley enough to support high-end severe weather. For this reason, 
the highest risk of severe weather across our forecast area will be 
counties along the southern Cumberland Plateau and southeast 
Tennessee.

On Saturday afternoon, it is likely that Supercells develop along 
the cold front or prefrontal trough across northeast and east-
central Mississippi and central and northern Alabama; these would 
begin to track northeast through the evening. These storms would 
most likely arrive in southeast Tennessee sometime between 23z and 
04z Saturday evening with a gradual upscale growth into a QLCS with 
embedded circulations as the night progresses. Storm motion will be 
very fast, around 220/65kt. The fast movement and kinematic wind 
profile will support severe thunderstorm damaging winds area-wide. 
The main tornado risk, including the most probable significant, long-
track tornado risk, is likely to remain south and west of the 
Knoxville area where better boundary layer moisture is present, but 
there will at least be a low risk of tornadoes area-wide. There will 
be a risk of large hail with Supercell thunderstorms, but the 
overall hail risk is low to medium.

3. Flooding

Ahead of the approaching cold front, very strong 850mb moisture 
transport moves into our area with PWATs reaching to near record 
high values of 1.4 to 1.5 inches. This is around 3.5 sigma above 
normal values which will support heavy rain rates. Due to heavy rain 
rates, flooding of urban areas and flood prone locations is expected.

Sunday through Wednesday

Upslope flow keeps clouds and showers across the mountains on Sunday 
with a chance of some light snow or rime ice on Sunday night before 
dry air and clear sky conditions return on Monday. With troughing 
early week, temperatures will be cooler early in the week before 
ridging brings a return to above normal temperatures by mid-week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 730 PM EDT Thu Mar 13 2025

A possible thunderstorm near TYS and possibly CHA next hour before
dissipating so VCTS remarks. VFR flight categories however will 
continue through the 00z TAF period. Winds will be light through 
about 18z Friday, after which point the potential for gusts up to 
about 20 knots begins to increase.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             52  76  61  73 /  10  10  50  90 
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  48  78  60  73 /  20   0  30  80 
Oak Ridge, TN                       48  77  59  72 /  20   0  30  80 
Tri Cities Airport, TN              45  75  54  74 /  10   0  10  50 

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...High Wind Warning from 8 PM Friday to 2 AM EDT Sunday for Blount 
     Smoky Mountains-Cocke Smoky Mountains-East Polk-Johnson-
     Sevier Smoky Mountains-Southeast Carter-Southeast Greene-
     Southeast Monroe-Unicoi.

VA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CD
LONG TERM....JB
AVIATION...TD
===

-- Sean

... I ordered a chicken and an egg from Amazon.  I'll let you know.
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