Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
400 AM EDT Mon Oct 05 2026

Valid 12Z Mon Oct 05 2026 - 12Z Wed Oct 07 2026

...Heavy rainfall threat gradually edges off the Gulf Coast as showers and
storms persist in Florida...

...An October heatwave will remain across central and southern California
into this week...

...Autumnal chill will overspread the Great Lakes and Northeast behind a
cold front...

A frontal boundary responsible for the recent wet weather pattern along
the Gulf Coast region is forecast to slowly edge farther south over the
next couple of days. The heaviest bands of rain remain just off the
western Gulf Coast early this morning, except in extreme southern Texas
where some heavy rain manages to move onshore. Meanwhile, moderate to
locally heavy rain are moving across the eastern Gulf Coast region where a
Flood Watch remains in effect for much of today. As the front edges ever
so slowly south, the heavy rain threat along the Gulf Coast will gradually
diminish. However, slow-moving thunderstorms could still bring locally
heavy rain today and possibly into Tuesday morning from the
Georgia-Florida border to northern Florida. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms will continue to bring a marginal threat of excessive
rainfall across northern Florida for the next couple of days.

Meanwhile, an anomalous upper-level ridge of high pressure will maintain a
late season October heat wave across southern and central California into
the Great Basin. Temperatures will run 15 to 20 degrees above normal,
bringing highs well into the 90s toward the coast and adjacent urban
areas, with some areas in the Central Valley of California soaring into
the lower 100s. Overnight lows in the mid to upper 70s in the Los Angeles
and San Diego urban areas will provide little relief through the heatwave.
Extreme Heat Warnings are in effect for portions of Southern California
and the interior deserts, while Heat Advisories extend across the Central
Valley and Bay Area. A piece of this warm air mass is spreading
northeastward across the Great Basin into the northern Rockies where high
temperatures in the middle and upper 80s��around 10 to 20 degrees
above average��will challenge some daily high temperature records.
These unseasonably warm temperatures will combine with gusty winds and low
relative humidity to also bring a fire weather risk today for the northern
Rockies to the northern High Plains.

In contrast to a summer feel-like heat across the West, a cold front
moving across the Great Lakes this afternoon and across the Northeast on
Monday will bring an autumnal chill. High temperatures in the 60s and even
some upper 50s will be possible from Michigan to Maine with widespread
morning low temperatures in the middle 30s to middle 40s. This is one of
the first cold shots of the fall season and will bring some agricultural
risk. Frost Advisories and Freeze Warnings are in effect for Monday
morning across portions of Minnesota and Wisconsin. The cold front will
then progress southward and bring a taste of fall to parts of the
Southeast as far south as Tennessee and the Carolinas by Tuesday, and
especially on Wednesday when the core of a cool high pressure builds into
the eastern U.S. Some showers are expected to move across interior
Northeast today as a reinforcing front moves across. Expect high
temperatures in the low 70s to the low 80s with cool morning low
temperatures in the 40s and 50s. Enjoy!!


Kong/Wilder


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx...

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