076 
FXUS64 KMRX 050643
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
243 AM EDT Mon Oct 5 2026

...New DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 240 AM EDT Mon Oct 5 2026

- Remaining rain to gradually lessen through this evening.

- Dry weather trend beginning tomorrow and lasting most of the
  coming week ahead. 

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 240 AM EDT Mon Oct 5 2026

The forecast area has begun the drying trend for the week, as rain 
moved out of southern portions of the area last night. At the time 
of this discussion, a dry cold front is just to our west; skies are 
clearing just behind a line from Memphis to Nashville to 
Middlesboro, KY. Skies will clear for us today from approximately NW 
to SE. By the later afternoon everyone should be experiencing mostly 
sunny skies.

The week ahead can be characterized by weak flow primarily out of 
the N to W and surface high pressure moving from the Upper Plains to 
off of the east coast mid week. New surface high pressure will 
replace it the latter part of the week as troughing and unsettled 
weather remain locked to the north and our south.

Temperatures will remain above normal, even today following the 
frontal passage. A gradual warming trend is expected with mid to 
possibly upper 80s from the central to southern valley to round out 
the work week. The coolest morning of the week will be tomorrow 
morning when the upper half of our forecast area if you were to 
slice it in half, will see lows in the 40s; 50s for lows for the 
remainder of the area.

Although too far to say for certain with any specifics, our next 
possible chance of rain won't be until next weekend when a shortwave 
rides north within the subtropical jet. Underneath it at the 
surface, a possible tropical system may need watching from the Gulf 
Coast's perspective. As of last night, the NHC gives the area in 
question a 40 percent chance of development. Something to watch 
for us as it may bring another rain filled and dreary weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 141 AM EDT Mon Oct 5 2026

Dry air will advect into the region throughout the overnight,
which leads to slightly less confidence for potential development
of brief MVFR cig or light fog. Have included short tempos at 
each site to account for this, but again, low confidence it 
occurs. Clouds will continue to give way to mostly sunny skies 
and NNEly winds generally ranging 6 to 12kts as we progress
through the morning and into the afternoon. 

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             81  57  82  54 /   0   0   0   0 
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  80  53  80  52 /   0   0   0   0 
Oak Ridge, TN                       79  52  79  51 /   0   0   0   0 
Tri Cities Airport, TN              75  47  76  48 /   0   0   0   0 

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KS
AVIATION...KRS


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