Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
355 PM EDT Mon Oct 05 2026

Valid 00Z Tue Oct 06 2026 - 00Z Thu Oct 08 2026

...Heavy rainfall threat gradually edges off the Gulf Coast as showers and
storms persist in Florida...

...An October heatwave will remain across central and southern California
into this week...

...Autumnal chill will overspread the Great Lakes and Northeast behind a
cold front...

A frontal boundary responsible for the recent wet weather pattern along
the Gulf Coast region is forecast to slowly edge farther south over the
next couple of days. While the northern Gulf Coast will begin to clear out
as high pressure settles in north of the stationary boundary, scattered
showers and thunderstorms will continue to bring a marginal threat of
excessive rainfall and an accompanied isolated flash flooding risk across
northern and central Florida for the next couple of days. 3 day rainfall
totals (Tuesday-Thursday) will range from around 2-4 inches across this
region in a soggy weather pattern.

An anomalous upper-level ridge of high pressure remains in control across
much of the West into the northern Plains, providing plenty of anomalous
warmth. The forecast has remained consistent with no change in hazardous
heat messaging for the California Heat Wave. Temperatures will run 15 to
20 degrees above normal, bringing highs well into the 90s toward the coast
and adjacent urban areas, with some areas in the Central Valley of
California soaring into the lower 100s. Overnight lows in the mid to upper
70s in the Los Angeles and San Diego urban areas will provide little
relief through the heatwave. Extreme Heat Warnings are in effect for
portions of Southern California and the interior deserts, while Heat
Advisories extend across the Central Valley and Bay Area. A piece of this
warm air mass is spreading northeastward across the Great Basin into the
northern Rockies where high temperatures in the middle and upper
80s��around 10 to 20 degrees above average��will challenge some
daily high temperature records. There will also be the chance for isolated
thunderstorms both Tuesday and Wednesday across the Great Basin and Four
Corners region as a weak upper-level low progresses through the region.

In contrast to a summer feel-like heat across the West, an Autumn airmass
has made an appearance across the Midwest and Northeast with cool, dry air
filtering in behind a cold front passage.  High temperatures in the low
70s to middle 60s are forecast for the Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic
on Tuesday, with afternoon temps in the 50s likely across New England.
Morning low temperatures on Tuesday and Wednesday will range from the
upper 30s to low 40s with some cooler areas dropping into the middle 30s
thanks to efficient radiational cooling in a dry air mass.  This is one of
the first cold shots of the fall season and will bring some agricultural
risk. Frost Advisories and Freeze Warnings are in effect for Tuesday
morning across portions of the interior Northeast and Appalachians. After
a brief cool down across portions of the Southeast on Tuesday,
temperatures will begin to modify into the 80s for Wednesday and Thursday.

In the tropics, the NHC has tagged Invest 92-L across the southwestern
Gulf of Mexico. Formation chances of a tropical cyclone are 60 % in the
short range period through 48 hours and 80% through the next 7 days. Keep
updated with the latest forecast from the National Hurricane Center in the
link: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov.

Wilder


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx...

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