897 
FXUS64 KMRX 051833
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
233 PM EDT Mon Oct 5 2026

...New DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 225 PM EDT Mon Oct 5 2026

- Dry weather expected for the coming week ahead. 

- Temperatures to remain above normal with a gradual warming trend 
each day. 

- Tropical development is expected over the Gulf which may impact 
the Tennessee valley and southern Appalachians this 
weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 225 PM EDT Mon Oct 5 2026

A surface ridge of high pressure and dry northwest flow over the 
southern Appalachians is pulling drier air into the region. Due to 
clear sky and calm winds, steam fog off area lakes and streams are 
expected so patchy areas of fog is expected near the waterways. some 
of the fog will be locally dense.

The surface ridge will move east of the area for Tuesday allowing 
moisture to pull back into the Tennessee valley along with a weak 
inverted trough. Instability remains quite limited with PWs of only 
0.7 to 0.9 so convection is not anticipated. 

Dry northwest flow aloft will remain through Wednesday with a dry 
frontal boundary moving the area late Thursday. Reinforcing dry air 
is expected for Friday with surface ridging across the southern 
Appalachians. PWs for Friday will drop to 0.6 at TYS. 

A lot question marks for this weekend. Tropical system has a 70 
percent chance of developing into a depression.  Where this system 
eventually turns north or northeastward is the uncertainty. Some of 
the deterministic and ensemble models pull moisture back into the 
Tennessee and southern Appalachians and early next week.

There is a great deal of uncertainty in the development and path of 
the expected tropical depression over the Gulf of America.
Depending on the exact path, heavy rainfall and gusty winds are 
possible this weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 110 PM EDT Mon Oct 5 2026

VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites through the forecast
period. Afternoon wind gusts around 20 knots at KCHA and KTYS
diminishing late afternoon close to sunset.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             57  83  56  85 /   0   0   0   0 
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  52  80  54  82 /   0   0   0   0 
Oak Ridge, TN                       51  80  53  82 /   0   0   0   0 
Tri Cities Airport, TN              43  77  48  78 /   0   0   0   0 

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DH
AVIATION...99


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