ACUS11 KWNS 142301
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 142300 
MOZ000-ILZ000-ARZ000-150100-

Mesoscale Discussion 0174
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0600 PM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025

Areas affected...northern Arkansas...Missouri...and into western
Illinois

Concerning...Tornado Watch 32...

Valid 142300Z - 150100Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 32 continues.

SUMMARY...Severe risk -- largely in the form of very strong/damaging
winds -- will continue over the next several hours, while risk for a
few/potentially strong tornadoes will also persist, especially over
southern portions of the WW.

DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows a broken/complex band of storms
moving across Missouri and adjacent northwestern Arkansas.  The most
intense convection is occurring from central Missouri southward,
just ahead of the advancing cold front.

While a dry/deeply mixed boundary layer is evident over northern
Missouri, dewpoints increase gradually with southward extent across
the watch.  This suggests primary risk across northern portions of
the watch remains very strong/damaging gusts, while tornado
potential increases with southward extent, across the Ozarks. 
Additionally, strong southerly low-level flow will continue to
advect moisture northward, so tornado potential should gradually
increase northeastward, with time.

..Goss.. 03/14/2025

ATTN...WFO...LSX...LZK...SGF...EAX...TSA...

LAT...LON   36129416 37019375 38309307 39169282 40129148 40019063
            36909128 35449174 35229305 35449389 36129416 

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